Before August this year, there was an anti season short term rise in agricultural products. In the harvest of summer crops, the wheat rose when harvest was expected. The state also raised the purchase price and made a large purchase. The price of natural rubber rose to a high point when it was opened in July.

How will the price of new cotton be listed in the middle of September?

More is to look at empty, Biejing is still in the doldrums, consumption is sluggish, shortage of funds, repayment of loans, and now hang upside down and so on.

When it comes to "accumulate weight", it is difficult, not impossible to return. When this "difficulty" is likely to be broken, I think we should pay close attention to the four aspects of dynamic change in September.

First, we should pay attention to the market trend if we buy cotton farmers at a low price.

Now, the purchase price of new seed cotton in small scale and low grade in Shanxi and Shaanxi is 2.80 yuan / Jin, and we know that in Jiangsu Dafeng and Anhui real estate cotton area, cotton farmers generally believe that the price is too low, and cotton farmers expect the price to be more than 3.20 yuan / Jin, otherwise they will wait and see the market.

In recent years, the acquisition of agricultural products has proved that grain farmers and cotton growers do not lose money in business, and they will strive to maximize revenue in the short term.

Although cotton farmers can not sell for a long time, short-term stalemate is entirely capable of doing so.

Cotton farmers have part of their own funds and government support on credit. There is no problem in stalemate for 2-3 months.

At present, the inventory of textile enterprises is generally low, and the total amount available in the market is very low.

June cotton information network survey statistics as of June 30th, only 1 million 350 thousand tons of commercial inventory, July cotton information network statistical industrial inventory of only 1 million 140 thousand tons, textile enterprises average cotton inventory for 35.63 days.

And we see in the relevant cotton spinning enterprises that many enterprises have only about 10 days' cotton stocks, almost all orders for re purchase cotton, and the vast majority of spinning enterprises still continue to adopt the strategy of buying and selling with their products at low prices or become a habit.

If cotton farmers are reluctant to sell cotton when the new cotton is bought, there will be a conflict in the short term.

Two, cotton prices this year are likely to still appear in limited price sales to promote cotton prices.

In the past few years, the government and the Agricultural Development Bank vigorously advocated and asked cotton enterprises to seize the opportunity to speed up the sale of new cotton while purchasing new cotton, but in recent years they did not do very well.

The reason is that by September cotton enterprises not only had no pressure to repay loans, but also had obtained a certain amount of loans and had the capital of gaming market.

So this year, when the total amount of cotton in the world is falling and the total output of China is also declining, cotton enterprises will try every means to push cotton prices by using various market information to gain certain profits.

For example, in the early September 2005, the new grade cotton of grade three rose from about 13500 yuan / ton to 14500 yuan / ton in December, and the market quotation did not begin to callback until February 2006.

In September 1, 2006, the price of new cotton of grade three was about 13300 yuan / ton, which rose to 13800 yuan / ton in September 20th, to a later callback, though time is short, but it is also a wave of market.

At the beginning of September 2007, the new cotton of grade three was about 12500 yuan / ton and later rose to 13800 yuan / ton, and it did not begin to callback until mid November.

In recent years, new cotton has been listed in different sizes. The new cotton market has its own rationale every year. But at the beginning of the new cotton market, all kinds of advantages and disadvantages have not been fully reflected in the market. At the beginning, the main factor that determines the market trend is often capital, and the initiative of new cotton market is more than that of cotton enterprises.

So in recent years, there will be a wave of new cotton listing.

This year's estimate is also true.

Three, during the new cotton listing period, the acquisition of state reserves will be very noteworthy.

Because the market supply is sufficient during the harvest period of China's summer grain crops this year, the state raises the purchase price and purchases large quantities of grain in consideration of increasing grain production costs and future grain demand and market stability.

Cotton sold 300 thousand tons of state treasury cotton last year, and global cotton has a downward trend. From the general trend of cotton consumption, with the continuous improvement of people's living standards in economic development, the general trend of cotton demand is still growing.

This year to mid August, the supply of the market cotton surface is ample, but the actual amount is not enough. The purchasing power is weak. From the end of August to the September, the cotton picking up and storing cotton will be very beneficial to the parties and the market. Although we can not accurately predict the price and quantity of the state's purchase and storage, if the country begins to purchase and store at this time, it basically determines the bottom of the cotton price this year.

In the industry, it is believed that the national storage will fall and fall like white sugar, and the cotton and sugar are completely different on the big base. The total production of white sugar in 07/08 is 14 million 840 thousand tons, the last year is 400 thousand tons, the import 600 thousand tons, the total amount is 15 million 840 thousand tons, and the annual consumption is 13 million 500 thousand tons, the surplus is up to about 2000000 tons, and the annual forecast is also the harvest and increase, the white sugar is only one year preservation period, and the state reserves will sell the wheel storage in one year.

The total consumption of cotton is decreasing and consumption growth is still the mainstream, and cotton can still be used for 3-4 years.

Therefore, the state will not receive more and more cotton, but will stabilize the cotton market.

Four, the recent changes in the RMB exchange rate and the increase in export tax rebates should also arouse concern for the promotion of textile exports.

In August 1st, a single export tax rebate increased by 2%, which had little impetus to export. Now the US dollar has rebounded strongly, and the RMB exchange rate has stabilized and callback. With the increase of export tax rebate, the driving force of textile export has been greatly enhanced.

From July 17th to August 15th, the US dollar rose to 7.5% against the euro, and from July 16th to August 15th, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 0.5%.

This change in exchange rate is noteworthy.

It will also affect the trend of new cotton.

The above four factors are likely to have a major impact on cotton market when new cotton is listed. At that time, the price of cotton will still be higher than that of domestic cotton, while other imported cotton can hardly be imported. Therefore, in spite of the desire to have high prices, these four motives can not change cotton market in the short term, but it is very likely that there will be a wave of market.