In the near future, cotton fundamentals will probably no longer play a role in the next 6 months or at least until February.

After February, the response of consumers to credit crisis, debt crisis, circulation crisis, or other chaotic crises determined whether cotton fundamentals played a role.

Consumers are always the key factors.

But today, in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Australia and Africa, all consumers are more concerned about their personal wealth and their long-term and short-term purchasing power.

They want to keep their homes, cars and family life healthy and stable. These are far more important than other things.

New clothes, bath towels, bed linens and other daily necessities, durable goods and non durable goods will face a sharp drop in demand.

Demand is the key. Within a few months, cotton will lose its leverage in demand.

The United States is a huge economic engine that has been driving global cotton consumption.

In addition, Chinese consumers have become the fastest growing consumers of cotton in the world.

Chinese consumers may be less affected than Western consumers, but China's ingenious manufacturing and export machines will face slower employment and slower economic growth.

Since the beginning of the new millennium, China's annual economic growth has reached two digits, which has been maintained until 2008.

However, in 2009, China's growth forecast slowed down to less than 8%, and growth was still strong, but the speed has slowed down considerably.

These factors are of great significance to the commodity market, but not related to the collapse of credit and capital markets. The collapse of credit and capital markets has dragged the world into crisis, and the economic struggle has lasted for at least 5 years or even longer.

Therefore, from the agricultural point of view, the attraction of cotton production to farmers is very low at present.

The main problem facing the world is capital circulation / credit. Cotton cultivation needs loans. The risk of loans leads many people to think that it is difficult for them to make decisions on planting cotton in 2009.

At the same time, price quotes will only be swinging back and forth.

According to the US Department of agriculture's report on supply and demand released on Thursday, the world's final inventory is expected to increase by 3 million packets from last month's forecast, which is now 55 million 500 thousand packs.

In addition, US exports are expected to decrease by 1 million 500 thousand packages, and only 13 million packages are expected for the 2008-09 export.

When the fundamentals are very arrogant, the world economy collapses, and now cotton is going into a downward path.

But the market will return to the middle price of 50 cents, but after the end of December.

(Jia Xiao)