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Analysis And Prospect Of Sino US Textile Trade In 2008

2008/5/6 0:00:00 72

   (一)美經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑可能造成紡織品消費(fèi)及進(jìn)口出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)

The subprime mortgage crisis since the three quarter of last year caused the most serious downturn in the US economy since 2001. In the 3 menstrual period this year, the United States predicted that the first quarter growth rate of the United States was only 0.1%.

American consumers are facing multiple pressures of mortgage pressure, stock market shrinkage, depreciation of the US dollar, rising prices and threat of unemployment. Consumer spending is expected to decline significantly.

The consumption demand of textile products will inevitably be negatively affected. The overall consumption and import level of US textile products in 2008 will probably be the first negative growth since 2001.

    (二)美進(jìn)口市場(chǎng)份額重新洗牌的格局仍在繼續(xù)

Faced with the prospect of reducing consumption and imports in the US market, the major textile exporting countries will continue to compete fiercely for the US market in 2008.

Judging from the current situation, CAFTA, which has been implemented for more than a year, has not recovered the unfavorable situation of textile exports to the US surrounding countries. Canada, Mexico and Central American countries may continue to reduce exports to the US. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other South Asian countries will continue to struggle to expand their share in the US market. Vietnam, which is emerging from the WTO after 2008, is expected to maintain a rapid growth momentum. It directly threatens India's position as the third largest textile product import source in the United States.

    (三)我輸美紡織產(chǎn)品增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭可能放緩

2008 is the last year of the implementation of the memorandum of textile trade between China and the United States. I am facing both favorable and unfavorable factors for the export of US textile products.

The favorable factors are mainly the further increase of quota categories and the expansion of market share. The main disadvantages are: 1, the RMB appreciation relative to the US dollar; 2, the implementation of the new labor law has increased the production cost; 3, the profit margins of domestic textile enterprises are low, and the ability of market fluctuation is weak; 4, the products of the non restricted categories have been increasing for 3 consecutive years, and the growth potential is limited in 2008; 5, before the end of the bilateral agreement, the US textile industry may again apply to the US government for trade protection measures to undermine the stability of Sino US textile product trade policies.

In January this year, the number of textile products imported from the United States decreased by 3.8% compared with the same period last year, and the amount decreased by 4%. The number of imports from China decreased by 3.1% and the amount decreased by 7.7%.

Despite the snow disaster in the southern part of China, this sign is still worthy of great attention.

    (四)紡織品貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義可能卷土重來

The Sino US bilateral agreement is about to expire at the end of the year. The textile industry in the United States has been studying the Countermeasures in an intensive way, trying to promote the introduction of new trade protection measures.

At present, major textile groups in the United States have put forward various plans, including countervailing investigations, anti-dumping investigations, self initiated anti-dumping measures by the government based on monitoring plans, and safeguard measures for specific products (Clause 421).

In addition, the results of the US presidential election will, to a certain extent, dominate the trend of the future textile trade policy. Once the Democratic presidential candidate comes to power, the textile industry will again become a victim of the US government's harsh stance on China's trade policy, and if the Republican candidate wins, the US textile industry's extensive restrictions will likely face more difficulties.

    

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