Central economic analysis will focus on macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year

According to Hongkong's "Wen Wei Po", the central economic situation analysis will be held in Beijing this week, and it is expected to find a way to deal with a series of problems facing China's economy.

Just in the first few days of July, a number of senior executives from the central government have been dispatched to the provinces for investigation and research.

Some experts pointed out that from this unprecedented intensive research, the decision-making level is worried about the current economic situation of China, indicating that the macro tune has reached a crucial crossroad.

6 days to visit 5 coastal provinces and cities

From 4 to 6 this month, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council conducted research in Jiangsu and Shanghai; from 4 to 5, vice president Xi Jinping in Guangdong investigated; from 6 to 8, Vice Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council investigated in Zhejiang; from 3 to 5, Vice Premier Wang Qishan of the State Council investigated in Shandong.

In just 6 days, 4 central leaders conducted an economic investigation and investigation in 5 developed foreign trade provinces.

Intensive research, dense time and high level personages are rare since the founding of the people's Republic of China.

Relevant people pointed out that the intensive research was a collective action of the Central Committee, the State Council and various departments since the meeting of heads of central and provincial and relevant departments in June 13th.

At the same time, the Banking Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Taxation and other ministries and commissions have also launched research.

Financial experts pointed out that since the founding of new China, there are few similar high-profile, intensive collective research activities, which shows that the current macro-control has reached a crucial crossroads.

The first half of the economy is not optimistic.

The analysis of China's securities network pointed out that behind the roadmap of these central leaders and ministries and collectives, how to solve the problem of high CPI, declining export growth, difficulties in enterprises, reduced revenue and low capital market?

Is the tight macro policy going in or out?

It is reported that this week, the central economic situation analysis of the second half of the year will be held in Beijing.

Obviously, the intensive research conducted by the State Council is the basis for formulating the macro policy in the second half of the year.

At the same time, these difficulties are expected to be answered one by one.

Inflation and economic growth deceleration

From the central high level trip, the main body of the collective survey is undoubtedly the enterprise.

What concerns the research group most is the impact of the RMB appreciation, the deterioration of the international situation and the tightening of macro policies.

How big is the export obstruction?

According to sources, the National Bureau of statistics will announce the first half of this year's economic performance data on Thursday.

From the data we have already released, the economic situation in the first half of this year is not optimistic.

The first thing to do is export.

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, the trade surplus reached 21 billion 350 million US dollars in the month of June, a decrease of 20.6% compared with the same period last year, a net decrease of US $5 billion 540 million, and a cumulative trade surplus of US $99 billion 30 million in the first half of this year, down 11.8% from the same period last year and a net decrease of 13 billion 210 million US dollars.

Among them, the export growth in June was 17%, which has dropped to 20% below the sensitive threshold after February this year, indicating that the turning point of foreign trade has already appeared.

This signal is something you do not want to see.

Zhang Wenkui, an Enterprise Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, said that due to the great pressure of macroeconomic regulation and control, the extent to which the central economic situation analysis will be able to come up with substantive solutions is not clear enough to solve the problem.

At present, rising prices and slowing economic growth have become the two core issues of macroeconomic decision making in the near future.

Experts say that raising interest rates will depend on the trade-off between the two parties. In fact, the possibility of raising interest rates by the central bank has been reduced to 30% in the next few months.