Home >
Discussion On The Cyclical Nature Of International Cotton Prices
Abstract: Taking the average annual price of international cotton in recent forty years as the object, this paper discusses the cyclical nature of international cotton price fluctuation, and analyzes the causes of its cyclical fluctuation. The corollary is drawn: the world cotton end inventory consumption ratio fluctuation cycle is the main reason for the cyclical nature of the international cotton price fluctuation, and the two have a strong negative correlation. Under mild inflation, the fluctuation of world economic growth rate is more consistent with the international cotton price fluctuation; under severe inflation, the impact of inflation on international cotton price is more decisive than the inflation induced economic recession on the international cotton price, which will promote the rise of international cotton prices; in the light of the current cotton market situation, the international cotton price is in the rising stage.
In a market economy, the cyclical nature of economic process means that the changing process of economic variables is controlled by a certain mechanism, and is embodied as a regular form or pattern. At the same time, economic process is different from objective physical process. It may be influenced by some stochastic factors, such as climatic factors, political factors, psychological factors, etc. Therefore, in the course of the whole economic operation, the change of an economic variable may be dominated by periodic rules, showing a more obvious upward trend, downward downward, and then upward upward cyclical movement, with obvious rules. At the same time, it will be found that this rule is not simply repeated, and each repeating unit will be different.
As an important economic variable, price is not only affected by supply and demand factors and changes, but also influenced by the psychological factors and changes of participants, and it will also be influenced by inflation and other factors. Together, these factors form a mechanism that affects prices. If this price fluctuation is cyclical, it is possible to predict the future price trend from the historical price trend.
As one of the most important economic crops in the world, cotton, as one of the most important textile materials, is in a more competitive market economy environment, regardless of its trade or textile industry. This article will take the international cotton price CotlookA index (annual average price, 1969/70 year 2008/09 year) as the object, from the international cotton price (nominal price) cyclical existence, the international cotton price cycle causes, as well as the international cotton price cyclical to the present cotton market enlightenment three aspects to discuss the cotton price cyclical. In this discussion, the data required are shown in Table 1.
Table 1 unit: cents / pound
Cotton year | NCotlookA | S/U | GDP year | ACotlookA | RACotlookA | RGDP/% | |
1969/1970 | Thirty-one point three three | Zero point three nine | |||||
1970/1971 | Thirty-one point one | Zero point three eight | |||||
1971/1972 | Thirty-seven point one five | Zero point three eight | One thousand nine hundred and seventy-one | Thirty-three point one two | Forty-three point seven two | Four point six | |
1972/1973 | Forty-one point nine five | Zero point four one | One thousand nine hundred and seventy-two | Thirty-eight point seven five | Forty-five point three five | Five point four | |
1973/1974 | Seventy-six point five | Zero point four three | One thousand nine hundred and seventy-three | Fifty-three point four seven | Fifty-three point four seven | Six point nine | |
1974/1975 | Fifty-two point five | Zero point five eight | One thousand nine hundred and seventy-four | Sixty-eight point five | Sixty-one point seven nine | Two point eight | |
1975/1976 | Sixty-five point three | Zero point four three | One thousand nine hundred and seventy-five | Fifty-six point seven seven | Forty-four point eight one | One point nine | |
1976/1977 | Eighty-one point eight five | Zero point four | One thousand nine hundred and seventy-six | Seventy point eight two | Fifty-four point nine five | Five point two | |
1977/1978 | Sixty-five Point Zero Five | Zero point four five | One thousand nine hundred and seventy-seven | Seventy-six point two five | Fifty-three point three six | Four point four | |
1978/1979 | Seventy-six Point Zero Five | Zero point three eight | One thousand nine hundred and seventy-eight | Sixty-eight point seven two | Forty-one point zero two | Four point six | |
1979/1980 | Eighty-five point four | Zero point three seven | One thousand nine hundred and seventy-nine | Seventy-nine point one seven | Forty-one point four nine | Three point eight | |
1980/1981 | Ninety-four point two | Zero point three five | One thousand nine hundred and eighty | Eighty-eight point three three | Forty point nine | Two point one | |
1981/1982 | Seventy-three point eight | Zero point four one | One thousand nine hundred and eighty-one | Eighty-seven point four |
- Related reading
- Daily headlines | Xu Yingxin, Vice President Of China Textile Association, Is Connected With The World.
- Fashion shoes | Japanese Tide Suicoke X BEAMS 2019 Brand New Joint Feature Snow Boots Are Coming Soon.
- Industry Overview | China'S Textile Industry Must Insist On Quality First And Efficiency First.
- Fashion shoes | Air Jordan 1 "Chicago" Chicago First Year Color Matching Shoes Sold On Sale?
- Fashion shoes | Air Force 1 Shoes New Chicago City Theme Color Strikes, Bright Ice Blue Crystal Bottom
- Fashion brand | Nike 2019 Mini Swoosh Printed Hooded Sweater Series Listed
- Fashion brand | The New 2019 New Winter Down Jacket Series Is Warm And Nice.
- Fashion brand | Goyard Launches A New Alpin Mini Bag, Fashionable And Nice Back.
- Fabric accessories | The Yangtze River Delta Fashion Industry Alliance Is Set Up, And Will Do These Things In The Future.
- Fashion shoes | Nike KD 12 Shoes New, Fresh Blues Color Matching Sale Details Released, Super High Color Value
- Textile Enterprises: How To Break Through The Dilemma Of Rising Costs
- China'S Textile Industry Is Seeking "Non Price Competitiveness"
- High Cost Iron Ore Digestion: Cost Pfer From Steel Enterprises To Downstream
- The Road Of "Forced" Boutique -- A Report From Xinsteel
- Panzhihua Steel Can Ensure The Supply Of Steel In Chengdu Market This Year.
- China's Steel Companies Lack More Than Just The Right To Speak?
- The Domestic Bearing Steel Market Is Running Smoothly And The Market Prospect Is Very Promising.
- Shoe Enterprise PEAK Love Ningyang Umbrella Tent To Send Traffic Police
- Olympic Games Marketing Strategy For Footwear Enterprises
- Strategy Of Listing And Financing Jinjiang Shoe Enterprises To Avoid Crisis