Cotton Prospects For 08-09 Cotton Season
According to the current economic conditions, the outlook for cotton in the 2008-09 cotton season has changed considerably, and the consumption demand of cotton products has affected the cotton trade and trade volume of cotton factories in many countries.
In the 2008-09 cotton season, cotton production in the world cotton plant is forecast to reach 119 million 300 thousand packs, 4 million 100 thousand packs lower than the last cotton season (3%), the lowest cotton season since the 2005-06 cotton season. The peak of cotton production in the world is in the 2006-07 cotton season, which is close to 123 million 500 thousand bales.
In the 2008-09 cotton season, cotton production in foreign cotton factories is expected to decline by 3%, down by 114 million 900 thousand packages, while factory cotton consumption in the United States continues to decline.
Cotton production in foreign cotton factories rose for 9 consecutive cotton seasons, reaching a record 118 million 800 thousand packs in the 2007-08 cotton season. Among foreign factories, the largest decline in cotton production in the 2008-09 season was forecast in China and Turkey (1 million per cent respectively), Pakistan (down 400 thousand packages) and India (down 300 thousand packages).
Despite the decline in factory use of cotton, China's factory cotton consumption (51 million packs) will continue to account for 43% of the total cotton consumption in the world's 2008-09 cotton season.
Cotton production in the global 2008-09 cotton season is forecast to reach 112 million 900 thousand packs, down 6% from the 120 million 500 thousand cotton production in the last cotton season, but it is still a record of Fifth cotton production. In the 2008-09 cotton season, the output of foreign cotton is estimated to reach 99 million 300 thousand packs, which is lower than that recorded in the 2007-08 cotton season, but it is still the third largest crop.
In the cotton season, there are different situations among the major foreign cotton producing countries. In fact, China's largest cotton producer in the 2008-09 cotton season predicted a 500 thousand drop in output. On the contrary, cotton production in India and Pakistan is expected to increase slightly in the 2008-09 cotton season. The United States accounted for a larger share of cotton production decline in the 2008-09 cotton season, because the surface crop in the United States was 30% lower than that of 13 million 500 thousand packages a year ago.
In the 2008-09 cotton season, the cultivated areas of cotton fell by 13% compared with the 2007-08 cotton season, which was due to the high return of expected cotton competitive crops. Cotton cultivation in the United States has reached the lowest level since the 1983-84 cotton season. The weather conditions of the cotton season are unfavorable. As a result, the estimated area of cotton cultivation in the United States reached 7 million 800 thousand hectares, the lowest cotton season in 25 years.
As predicted cotton production in foreign factories is significantly lower than in cotton production, the global cotton trade in 2008-09 cotton season is expected to be lower than that in the last cotton season, which is the result of the gloomy global economy. The world cotton trade forecast reached 35 million 200 thousand bales in the cotton season and 38 million 700 thousand bales in the 2007-08 cotton season. Foreign exports are expected to decline by 11% over the 2007-08 cotton season, while US cotton exports are expected to decline 5% compared to the forecast.
In the 2008-09 cotton season, world cotton final inventory forecast reached 57 million 400 thousand packs, 4 million packs lower than the previous cotton season, which is the lowest cotton season since the 5 cotton season. The 2008-09 cotton reduction is attributable to the decline in production, which also offset the expected decline in cotton production in the global cotton plant.
Much of the decline in global inventories is attributable to the predicted decline in US inventories. The US stock forecast dropped by 3 million 800 thousand packages to 6 million 200 thousand packs, the lowest since the three cotton season.
Editor: vivi
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