In 2009, China's textile and clothing export data fell sharply in 1-2 months, which is a manifestation of the low level of orders in the 08 quarter of the year.

        目前大多數(shù)國內(nèi)企業(yè)都感覺到接訂單情況較08年4季度已經(jīng)有了較大的好轉(zhuǎn)，一些細(xì)分行業(yè)龍頭企業(yè)訂單量生產(chǎn)已經(jīng)排到了5、6月份。另外國內(nèi)服裝消費市場內(nèi)需目前雖然保持著較高的增長率，但是未來幾個月的發(fā)展趨勢難以樂觀。因此“輕行業(yè)、重公司”仍是投資策略。

　　投資要點：

1, the expected decline in exports in February.

According to the statistics released by the General Administration of customs, the total export of textile and clothing in China in 1-2 months of 2009 was 21 billion 903 million US dollars, which dropped by 14.54% over the same period last year.

Among them, the total exports of textiles amounted to 7 billion 286 million US dollars, and clothing exports totaled 14 billion 617 million US dollars, with a growth rate of -20.06% and -11% respectively.

The decline rate of textile and garment exports is expected, because the 08 quarter of the year is a sharp reduction in orders. The delivery date for foreign trade orders is mostly 3 to 6 months. Therefore, the reduction in export volume in 1 and February is reasonable.

The influencing factors of RMB appreciation are still showing in the data and will disappear in the future.

Although the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is basically stable at around 6.83, at the beginning of last year, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar at the 7.1 level was still in a state of appreciation.

Excluding the value added factor of RMB to the US dollar (RMB denominated), 08 years 1? In February, the export of textile and clothing decreased by -17.68%, of which textiles were -23.61% and clothing was -14.37%.

With the stability of the RMB exchange rate, the data released by the customs will gradually reflect the actual export of domestic enterprises (calculated in Renminbi).

At present, the production of leading enterprises is relatively stable.

The export data in January of 09 were better than those in February. A large part of this is due to the fact that most enterprises in the end of 08 predicted that the export rebate rate increased in January 09 and the time of delivery was delayed, rather than the demand growth.

With the low volume of orders in the 08 quarter and 4 quarter, the inventory consumption of foreign enterprises is coming to an end. At present, most domestic enterprises feel that the order situation has improved considerably over the 4 quarter of 08.

Some of the leading enterprises in the subdivision industry have reached 5 and June.

The consumption of domestic market will be more rational in the future, and the consumption situation is hard to be optimistic.

At present, domestic consumption in clothing consumption market still keeps a relatively high growth rate, but the consumption of Spring Festival is very heavy.

With the decline of foreign demand, increase in imports and export to domestic sales, domestic consumers are becoming more rational, resulting in the "impulse consumption" of clothing demand market gradually disappearing.

"Light industry and heavy companies" are still investment strategies.

In the export oriented listed companies, we are still optimistic about the industry segmentation leading companies, because these companies still have strong order taking advantages under the situation of declining international demand.

Such as: Lu Tai A, Shandong Ruyi, Yantai spandex.

In the domestic listed companies, we are optimistic about the company that has the ability to enhance brand channels.

Such as wedding bird, Mei Bang dress, Weixing shares.

Editor in chief: Xu Qiyun