2010年4月13日，人民幣一年期遠(yuǎn)期合約報(bào)6.6361，創(chuàng)下近10個月的歷史新高，不得不讓人們開始考慮人民幣會在短期內(nèi)大幅度升值的可能性。盡管在當(dāng)月13日國家主席胡錦濤與美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬會晤時表示，人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制改革不會在外部壓力下加以推進(jìn)。不過，市場對于人民幣升值的預(yù)期并沒有因此受到影響。由此看來人民幣升值將在全國各行各業(yè)興起的“驚濤駭浪”并非空穴來風(fēng)。

When the RMB appreciates, the major industries in China will face several unhappy situations, especially the labor-intensive industries such as sweater industry. According to the experts' prediction, if the appreciation rate of RMB exceeds 6%, nearly half of the sweater enterprises will be faced with the fate of bankruptcy. This prediction has made the sweater industry panic, and many people in the sweater blog have published articles. The prospect is not optimistic.

The author here only gives some rough opinions on the impact of RMB appreciation on the development of sweater industry.

First of all, most of the sweater industry orders are from abroad, that is, most of the sweaters are exported, so the appreciation of the renminbi is closely related to the sweater industry.

It is reported that in the southern sweater intensive enterprises in Dalang Town, the foreign trade enterprises there, see a lot of foreign trade orders is not joy, instead began to frown, because if a lot of orders, and the RMB appreciation, their choice is to lose or default part of the order.

Secondly, the appreciation of the RMB will lead to the expansion of the domestic sweater industry, because the trade sheet of sweater industry is far greater than the domestic sales list. With the appreciation of the renminbi, many foreign trade companies have to turn the market to the domestic market under the pressure of survival. As most enterprises will use this way to ease the trauma of the appreciation of the renminbi, it will lead to the expansion of the domestic market of the sweater industry, which will affect the long-term development of the whole sweater industry in the long run.

In addition, after the Spring Festival of 2010, the main export areas of sweaters, such as southeastern coastal areas, all appeared "labor shortage" to varying degrees. The solution to this problem is to increase the personal benefits of factories. This means that the profit margins of the sweater industry originally located in 3%-5% are still declining.

Although the main export market of sweaters has been showing signs of warming after April, it is now facing the trend that the RMB will soon appreciate. This series of problems will undoubtedly bring heavy losses to the small and medium-sized enterprises in the sweater industry.