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Zhang Yutai: China'S GDP Faces Eight Challenges And Problems.

2010/8/10 19:51:00 44

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Director of the development research center of the State Council

Zhang Yutai

On the 6 day at the Chongqing forum of "responsibility for scientific development and state owned enterprises", the GDP growth rate this year will be around 10%-11%.

Investment growth will be slightly callback

Zhang Yutai said that from the development trend of the second half of this year, the actual growth rate of investment and consumption in China will maintain a slight pullback trend. At the same time, western developed countries are generally facing the pressure of reducing fiscal deficits and resolving debt risks, which will reduce the growth rate of China's exports in the second half of the year.

The dual factors of domestic demand and exports may cause a certain callback in China's GDP growth in the second half of the year.

Zhang Yutai said that from the first half of this year, the overall economic development trend is good and continues to move towards the expected development of macroeconomic regulation and control.

The National Bureau of statistics preliminarily estimated that the gross domestic product increased by 11.1% in the first half of the year.

The development research center of the State Council made use of the economic growth cycle model to simulate and forecast. The result shows that in 2010, when the total fiscal expenditure reaches 11.4% of the budget growth target, the GDP growth rate in China will reach 10%, if the fiscal expenditure increases by 11.4%, the second half will be higher.

Domestic market demand

And the growth rate of external demand will not drop significantly, so this year's GDP growth will reach about 11%.

The economy continues to maintain a stable trend.

Zhang Yutai judged that, on the whole, China in the second half of the year

Macro economy

The situation will continue to remain stable.

The short-term callback of economic growth is a high adjustment during the recovery process, and is also the expected result of the active adjustment of the policy.

China's macroeconomic policy is to maintain a stable and rapid economic development, adjust the economic structure and prevent bubbles and curb inflation, adjust according to the economic callback and inflation pressure in real time, enhance the flexibility and pertinence of policies, prevent big ups and downs, and gradually realize the smooth pition from economic policy to routine.

However, it still faces eight challenges and problems: first, the rapid growth of the economy, but the extensive characteristics of economic growth are still very significant; two, the low cost competitive advantage is gradually weakening; three, in the process of self growth, the vitality of the system and mechanism needs to be released; four, independent innovation has made new progress; however, technological progress has not pushed the economic development forward; five, the development speed of the service industry has been accelerating, but still lagging behind; six, opening up has promoted economic development, but the problem of internal and external economic disharmony has become more and more obvious; seven is the accelerated pace of ecological civilization construction, but the task of resource conservation and ecological environment governance is still arduous; eight is the rapid economic development, but the economic development is not balanced, the income gap and public services are still inadequate. However, Zhang Yu Tai pointed out that although the national economy has maintained sustained, steady and rapid growth,