"

Misfortunes never come alone.

In the reality of high raw materials, a large number of local governments have begun to sluice sluice and limit electricity in order to achieve the "11th Five-Year" energy saving and emission reduction targets.

Industry experts believe that textile enterprises will fall into a large area of production or stop production, and even the title of the media is named: China's textile industry is hovering on the frontline of life and death.

Is the textile industry really at risk? Let's connect with economic observer Ma Guangyuan immediately.

Moderator: Mr Ma, cotton prices rose by 20% in 4 days. What are the reasons?

Ma Guangyuan: cotton prices have been rising from last year to now. From the point of view of the reasons, it should be said that a result of multiple factors superposition.

From the domestic point of view, cotton prices were very low in 2008, leading to a major setback in cotton farmers' confidence, resulting in reduced planting area.

The planting area in 2009 is 14 million mu less than that in 2007. From the material point of view, from the normal 7 million 500 thousand to 6 million 400 thousand, the reduction is relatively large.

第二個(gè)我們知道，去年由于天氣的原因，整個(gè)棉花主產(chǎn)區(qū)的產(chǎn)量都比較低，所以導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)目前整個(gè)供需狀況一直不平衡，從國(guó)際來(lái)看，其實(shí)連續(xù)15年整個(gè)國(guó)際的棉花供需平衡一直沒有跟上，也就是說(shuō)需求量一直遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于產(chǎn)量，所以導(dǎo)致整個(gè)國(guó)際棉花的供需市場(chǎng)連續(xù)15年來(lái)一直是不平衡的，再加上去年整個(gè)全球的棉花主產(chǎn)區(qū)受災(zāi)害因素的影響，導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)量也是下降，比如說(shuō)印度，現(xiàn)在禁止棉花出口，再加上美元走低等等因素導(dǎo)致棉花期貨價(jià)格也在一路走高，在這種疊加因素的影響下，導(dǎo)致中國(guó)的棉花價(jià)格走高，我們看到基本上是連續(xù)漲停的一個(gè)走勢(shì)，從這個(gè)走勢(shì)本身來(lái)看的話，如果說(shuō)全球的貨幣量繼續(xù)供應(yīng)下去的話，導(dǎo)致棉花生產(chǎn)的整個(gè)原材料繼續(xù)上漲的話，這個(gè)棉花價(jià)格目前來(lái)看還沒有到最高點(diǎn)。

Short term response to difficult industrial structure must be changed

Moderator: in the first half of the year, we also saw that the profit of the textile industry increased by 61% over the same period last year. Is the environment really so bad?

Ma Guangyuan: it should be said that the current situation of the textile industry should be very serious. We say that the whole profit growth last year was due to a relatively low base. In the financial crisis, such a factor would lead to the whole profit growth itself should not be much comparable.

This year is a sharp rise in cotton prices. From September to September this year, the price jumped by more than 40%. For the textile industry, the cost of this raw material has skyrocketed to make it more difficult to react from the price, plus our export tax rebates, together with the energy saving emission reduction mentioned before, leading to the textile industry now facing such a situation, it may be more difficult to deal with it in the short term.

But I think it may be a bit exaggerated to say that facing the front line of life and death, after all, many industries are facing such a situation, so I think that for the textile industry, it may be further cut down or stop production.

Coupled with the recent pressure from the United States on RMB appreciation, the whole situation is grim, but it has not yet reached the frontline of life and death. After all, we know that its profits last year and this year are still around 10%. There is still some room for adjustment. Therefore, we should make some adjustments in terms of product structure and other aspects, and we should change the whole industry and production capacity, but the situation is still grim.