On October 22nd, the three quarter economic data exceeded expectations: in the first three quarters, GDP rose 10.6%, CPI rose 2.9%, CPI rose 3.6% in September, and PPI rose 4.3%.

With the closing of the fifth plenary session, the "12th Five-Year plan" is clear. Economics Whether the policy will change or not, how will China's economic situation become the focus of market attention in the future? Because the three quarter economic data far exceeded the expectations of the previous major institutions, plus the central bank before the data release. Increase interest The decision shows that China's economy has no risk of "two bottom finding" and starts the "exit" policy.

The central bank raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, to a certain extent, increased the pressure of RMB appreciation. exchange rate Once the appreciation, the textile and footwear industry will have a great impact. Generally speaking, the gross profit margin of enterprises in general processing trade is generally relatively low. If exchange rate fluctuates, it will increase the cost first. Not only that, the interest rate of most private enterprises rises, the financing channels are affected, and with the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies, many private enterprises will be faced with multiple tests, and even some enterprises will be eliminated.

Take Zhejiang as an example, after the Zhejiang energy saving and emission reduction teleconference in July 29th, high-intensity power rationing measures were implemented in various places, and the pressure of local government regulation was steep. The embarrassing situation of "changing the face" embarrassed the local government. Zhang Xinxing, for example, was in the first half of the year trying to coordinate the power supply for an enterprise and urged it to start work as soon as possible. However, in the second half of the year, it had to be notified that the company would not supply electricity. Shoemaking enterprises are very affected by the power limitation. Almost all shoe companies in Wenzhou are being "limited". They can not produce thick orders but can only sigh. A responsible person from a private enterprise in Shaoxing said that a lot of foreign orders could not be delivered due to intermittent start. It's trivial to lose an order. If the credibility of enterprises is affected, a series of orders are cancelled. "In Jiaxing, the Secretary of the Party committee of a strong industrial town sighed," farmers used to petition in the past. Now office buildings are filled with "petitioning" business owners.

Lost Zhejiang made?

Between 1978 and 2001, the added value of Zhejiang's manufacturing industry increased by 17% annually, ranking first in the country. The added value of manufacturing industry accounts for 38% to 43.8% of GDP in the whole province, and once played a supporting role.

However, in recent years, the proportion of manufacturing industry in Zhejiang is relatively low. Guo Zhanheng, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the Zhejiang provincial Party committee, pointed out that the proportion of industrial projects in major construction projects in Zhejiang's "11th Five-Year plan" accounted for 13%, and the proportion of manufacturing investment in the past three years was 8-10 percentage points lower than that in Jiangsu and Shandong.

The financial crisis and the macroeconomic regulation and control policy were double stranded, which led to a fall in Zhejiang enterprises. Many private capitals withdraw from the manufacturing industry, resulting in the "hollow" of local industries and the hot money of funds.

"It is difficult to sustain long-term development of enterprises only by making small profits in industry. "A local shoe manufacturer in Wenzhou told the Zhejiang Businessmen:" several spanformation and upgrading enterprises are also struggling. "Huang Fajing, chairman of Wenzhou smoking appliances industry association and chairman of sun Feng lighter Co., Ltd. told the reporter of Zhejiang merchants that Wenzhou metal lighter enterprises, which occupy more than 90% of the country's output, have been reduced to about 100 from the more than 500 in its peak years. In these 100, only 30 of the business owners are still concentrating on their operations. "Some enterprises have shifted their focus to other industries, such as real estate, mining and the third industry. In the recently released "2010 Top 100 enterprises in Wenzhou", in addition to 2 Real Estate Company and 6 construction companies, more than 40 other manufacturing enterprises have been involved in real estate development, and even well-known manufacturing enterprises such as Kangnai, AOKANG and reporting birds.

Zhejiang's manufacturing industry's stamina has always been a concern of policymakers in Zhejiang, and this round of energy saving and emission reduction has pushed the spanformation of Zhejiang enterprises to the agenda again. Liu Bojun, a Zhejiang Research Institute of development planning, cautioned that "if industry regulation is a little careless, there will be a risk of stall or even retrogression." "Perhaps the real spanformation period of Zhejiang's economy has just begun.