In the past month,

In October 22nd, the price of 5500 tonne cards was 7% yuan per ton, while in September 25th, the price of the same heat in the Datong mixed warehouse price was 710~720 yuan. In a short period of less than a month, the price rose by about 7%.

This momentum is still strong at present, and Liu Zhicheng, deputy director of Bank of China International Executive Director and Hongkong research department, predicts that the spot price of domestic steam coal will remain strong in the coming winter peak of coal consumption.

"The price of coal is higher than expected this year. We will increase the benchmark price forecast of domestic steam coal by 9% and 14% respectively this year and next two years."

Liu Zhicheng thinks.

Chen Liang, chief analyst of GF Securities coal industry, believes that the market forecast for coal price increase in 2011 is generally less than 10%, but GF estimates that coal price increase in 2011 is expected to be over 15% (10%~12% of steam coal and 15%~20% of coking coal).

Five big power companies expand their losses

First financial daily was learned from many channels.

Earlier, Datang Group held a Regional Symposium, its principal responsible person said that although the Datang Group achieved profitability in the month from May to July, the overall profit turn in August was achieved. In September, although the electricity market was at a low ebb, it still maintained a slight surplus.

Since October, the price of coal has risen to varying degrees, whether in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia or Qinhuangdao.

From the perspective of the rise in the price of coal in October, Datang Group lost more than once.

Executives of a power generation group told the newspaper that the loss of the power plant belonging to the group was 58%, and that the losses of other power generation groups should be very different.

According to the current price and increase of coal price, by the end of this year, the whole power generation industry should be in a reasonable position to fall into the loss of the whole industry.

Previously, 5 independent power generation enterprises have announced the power generation data for the three quarter of 2010, and Huaneng International (600011.SH) grew 23% in the three quarter compared with the same period last year, higher than expected.

The three quarter net sales of Datang Power Generation (601991.SH) increased by 17.7% to 44 billion 900 million kwh.

In addition, Huarun power (00836.HK) increased net sales in the three quarter up to 17% kwh compared to the same period last year.

In addition, 600027.SH announced that the net output in the three quarter of 2010 increased by 20.3% to 30 billion 100 million kwh.

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This means that the electricity generation will continue to rise rapidly in the four quarter, and the cost of generating electricity will gradually increase.

At present, the rise of coal prices is also expected to increase. The industry generally analyzes that the rise of coal prices not only stems from the rising trend of international commodity prices, but also has a great relationship with the money market recently.

The director of the Qinhuangdao Office of a power generation company, in an interview with the newspaper, also said that although many power generation companies and coal companies have already locked coal contracts ahead of time, there are still some electricity coal to be replenish through the market. On the other hand, the rate of cashing of the coal companies directly determines the cost of the power generation companies.

Internet price increases are hopeless in the near future

Last month, the relevant departments of the national development and Reform Commission convened a symposium on the five major power generation companies, and consulted on the price of electricity coal and the cost of generating electricity.

The national development and Reform Commission is also planning to adjust the local electricity price at a suitable time.

Subsequently, Citigroup issued a research report that the national development and Reform Commission has proposed 7 provinces coal-fired power plant tariff increase of 15 yuan / megawatt time ~25 yuan / megawatt, the gas power grid tariff rise unifying 30 yuan / megawatt.

Although the five major power generation companies have repeatedly reflected the cost of electricity coal to the NDRC through different channels, the newspaper also learned that the NDRC had planned a number of adjustment programs, but so far, the scheme has not yet been introduced.

"The latest statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics show that CPI rose 3.6% in September, hitting a new high in the past 23 months. The pressure of inflation has made the NDRC very cautious. After all, the price movements of coal and electricity are all conductive."

An official of the electricity regulatory department said in an interview with this newspaper.

Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of statistics, said on the 23 day of the 2010 "China State owned economic development forum" that the effect of food and housing on the price rise is more than 90%. The CPI increase in October will be higher than that in September.

This statement makes the five big power companies rather depressed. In the short term, the pmission of electricity coal prices will only be borne by power generation companies.