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China Did Not Shrink &Nbsp As Expected; &Nbsp; The US Dollar Fell On Monday.

2010/12/14 9:12:00 50

A New Round Of Interest Rate Hikes Has Not Been Expanded As The Market Expects.

Beijing time on the morning of December 14th, during the weekend, China announced a number of strong economic data. Not as expected in the market Announce A new round of interest rate hike Decision. The US stock index and commodity futures market rose on Monday and pushed ahead. US dollar expanded It lost some of its earlier advantages against the euro, yen and sterling.


China's economic data during the weekend strengthened global economic growth expectations and expanded investor appetite for risky assets such as stocks and commodities. The relatively safe dollar is out of favor. European leaders' expectations of some sort of agreement on sovereign debt issues this week also raised the strength of the euro currency. At the close of the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index for tracking six major currencies was 79.30 points, or 0.96%.


The euro rose to 1.29% against the US dollar at 1.3401, while the US dollar was 83.33 yen, or 0.67%, against the yen. With the US Treasury bond yield returning from its high trading position in overseas markets since May, the yen has narrowed its gains against the dollar. The dollar and yen rose to 84.35 yen earlier.


The pound fell to 0.43% against the dollar on Monday at $1.5870. Earlier, the pound fell to $1.5718 against the dollar. BOE officials said on Monday that they would expand the bank's treasury bond procurement plan. The pound fell to 0.85% against the euro on Monday, 1.1842 euros.


The European Central Bank released data on Monday that the bank expanded the size of the purchase of Euro bonds last week, but because of other factors, this measure did not constitute immediate support for the euro. Andrew Bach, global currency analyst at BMO capital market, stressed in his report on Monday that the current trading range of the euro is still changing in the past few weeks. On Monday, the ECB data showed that the scale of the purchases of treasury bonds has expanded, meaning that the European central bank tried to support the euro status, but the bank kept secret about this measure. Peter Frank, a monetary strategist at Societe Generale, believes that at least "the ECB has the ability to control recent crises."


Another focus of the European market this week is that European Parliament leaders will convene meetings to discuss further measures to control the sovereign debt crisis so as to ensure the safety of the euro. Possible resolutions include the possibility of automatic debt restructuring and the possibility of establishing Pan European bonds, and the proposal to expand the scale of stabilization fund.


Forex.com monetary strategist pointed out in the report that "the European authorities are slowly but gradually clear that the market will not accept the solution to the sovereign debt crisis, and investors want to see a complete solution." The report says that although investors do not expect to get a big news, "at this summit of European leaders, any position that is willing to take the necessary measures to solve the crisis and help the euro zone to stand firmly will be seen as a positive signal and boost market confidence in the short term."


Andrew Bach of BMO also believes that, in the end, it may take a few years for the European Monetary Union to become a real financial union, to assume debt as a whole and set up a budget. "We are now moving towards this goal. Though sometimes it looks bad, all countries have their own interests to achieve that goal, and the question is how long it will take. "


At the same time, data show that China's consumer price index has seen rapid growth in November. One day before, the people's Bank of China has asked banks to increase the reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. However, the PBC did not announce interest rate rises at the weekend as expected. Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd analysts believe that "monetary policy and China's growth are closely linked. The current policy shows that China still has room for growth and is expected to achieve a growth rate of 9% in 2011."


Before the Fed's latest interest rate decision was announced on Tuesday, Asian investors' digestion and response to us data last Friday led to a rise in the dollar exchange rate in the Asian trading session on Monday.


The US dollar rose more than 1% against the euro and yen last week due to a sharp rise in yields due to falling US Treasury bonds. This further raised the market's concern about the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy statement this week. At the last interest rate decision conference, the Federal Reserve decided to expand the previous treasury bond procurement project by 600 billion US dollars.


In a report on Monday, Citigroup analysts said, "there is evidence that the recent price changes in the Treasury market are not enough to cause the fed to change its statement of decision making in order to make a supportive statement against the US dollar. On the other hand, there are signs that the Federal Reserve is trying to speed up the scale of the monthly Treasury bond purchases, or the Fed's concerns about the economic growth prospects, which may weigh on the US dollar exchange rate.

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