Thanksgiving Day in late November to next year's new year's Day is the traditional Christmas shopping season in the United States. This year, the sales situation of the US retail industry has seen an unexpected growth. However, some analysts have pointed out that such a growth does not mean the recovery of the US economy.

"The first normal Christmas in three years"

Because of the high unemployment rate in the United States, the prospects for economic recovery are uncertain.

Statistics from the National Federation of retailers show that during the "black Friday", the number of American shops increased by 8.7% compared with last year, and the total number of visitors was about 212 million.

The average consumption per customer is $365.34, an increase of 6.4% over last year.

The strong Christmas shopping season has pulled up the US retail sales data in November.

The US Department of Commerce released 14 reports that the total retail sales in November rose for fifth consecutive months, reaching $378 billion 700 million, an increase of 0.8% over October, an increase of 9.2% over the same period last year.

This data is close to the $379 billion 900 million in November 2007 before the financial crisis.

Data from the data Research Institute of MasterCard Consulting Inc., "consumption pulse" data show that Americans are in the Christmas season this year.

Discount triggering consumer enthusiasm

In November this year, the main retail businesses in the United States were doing well in the same store sales: the largest department store in the United States - Messi department store sales increased by 6.1%, chain corporation chain corporation sales increased by 9.2%, and Costco storage supermarket company sales increased by 9%.

Sales of boutique department store Neiman Markus and world top Sax Fifth Avenue boutique department increased by 5.5% and 5.3% respectively.

In view of the gratifying achievement of "black Friday", the National Retail Federation has raised the expected year-on-year retail sales increase from 2.3% to 3.3% in 11 and December this year, higher than the average growth rate of 2.5% over the past 10 years.

For the strong recovery of the US retail industry, Jack Clainz, chief economist of the National Retail Federation, said that the revival of the retail industry reflected the change in consumer confidence. With the improvement of macroeconomic indicators, consumer confidence began to increase.

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However, Phil List, executive vice president of a business research firm, believes that the driving force for higher holiday consumption is consumers' enthusiasm for discounts and specials, rather than consumer confidence in the economy.

Therefore, it is not a viable proposition to assert that the US economy has recovered only on the basis of the revival of spending power during the Christmas season.

The employment market still has a deep impact on consumption.

Joseph Fodi, a professor of economics at New York University, who has long been concerned about the US retail industry, said that the US retail industry has been strong this year and has basically recovered to its pre crisis level.

He pointed out that online shopping and clothing sales grew strongly this year in total retail sales, but sales of computers, televisions, and other electronic products decreased, and specials were sought after.

Fudi is optimistic about sales this Christmas season, but is cautious about next year's retail business.

He believes that if the unemployment rate of the United States can not be reduced to less than 8%, the retail industry will also face challenges.

Alan Wahl, a senior trader at the New York stock exchange, also said that he was cautiously optimistic about the prospects of the US retail industry. Whether the personal consumption that accounts for 70% of the total US economic activity can be fully recovered and whether the retail industry will continue to grow will depend on the changes in the job market.