Starting in January this year, we may again show strong growth in the real economy, inflation rebound and ample liquidity.

"In the fourth quarter of 2010, China's real economic growth remained strong, and may slow down in December. Gross domestic product The increase is expected to reach 10.2%. In December, the inflation rate of CPI and PPI may both fall. The growth rate of CPI may be reduced from 5.1% in November to 4.2%, and the growth rate of PPI will decrease to 4.6% from 6.1% in November. Song Yu, executive director and Goldman economist of Goldman Sachs Asia Limited, said in an interview with China economic times in January 6th.

Song Yu believes that the current economic characteristics are high growth and high inflation. The slowdown of China's economy under overheating is not bad news. From the data of industrial added value and so on, the GDP growth rate in the 9 to November may exceed 12%. However, due to the higher base level last year, the growth rate was lower than that of the previous year, so many people mistakenly believe that the domestic economy is stagflation. If the judgement is correct, the steady slowdown in growth caused by tightening policy is positive because it helps to alleviate the pressure of economic overheating, especially when the supply side is relaxed.

"The government will not tolerate high inflation and will take further measures during the year. Curb inflation In the short term, there are still many uncertainties, including policy making, especially whether monetary authorities will prevent commercial banks from concentrating on lending in advance. Although foreign exchange inflows are affected by policies, the government can not fully control capital flows due to the high degree of openness of China's economy, and freezing weather and other bad weather conditions may cause upward pressure on food prices in the short term. Song Yu told reporters.

The Goldman Sachs Group expects the year-end effect (loan to deposit ratio). Assessment At the beginning of the year, banks began to concentrate on lending again. After the end of 11th Five-Year, the intensity of production restriction was reduced, and the weather conditions in the short term became worse. In January this year, economic data may again show strong economic growth, inflation rebound and abundant liquidity. If this is the case, more tightening measures can be expected, and the upward and downward risks facing growth and inflation forecasts in 2011 (10% and 4.3% respectively) are broadly balanced.

Goldman Sachs predicts that in December 2010, the growth rate of industrial added value will decrease from 13.3% in November to 12.8%, and the 2010 year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment will slow down to 24.7%. Export growth will normalize in December, an increase from 34.9% in November to 20%.

At the same time, import growth is expected to decline as export growth slows and domestic austerity measures are introduced, but the higher prices of imported commodities may slow down their exports compared with exports. Net exports in December may be around us $18 billion, down from US $22 billion 900 million in November.