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A few days ago, the people's Bank of China issued a document requiring the deposit of commercial bank deposits into the deposit reserve scope, which was handed over in batches from September 5th.

Shi Lei, deputy general manager of Ping An Securities fixed income department, said that the central bank's unusual adjustment of deposit reserve subjects, together with the previous increase in the central bank's issuance rate, showed that the central bank's monetary policy had not been relaxed, but the move was more about the expiration of the central bank's vote and the increase in foreign exchange hedging, which did not indicate that the central bank's liquidity management was further tightened.

He expects that there will be substantial fluctuations in the interest rates of funds in 9 and October. The central bank's use of unconventional ways to raise the deposit level reflects the increase in the deposit reserve ratio.

Although the total amount of the reserve required is large, the amount required to pay the most in the first few months is only about 200 billion a month.

CICC's report released on Monday indicated that although the amount of reserve required under the new regulation is not as fast as the increase in the required reserve ratio, the liquidity will not deteriorate sharply. However, it will be very difficult to improve before the end of the year, and the bank's overtaking rate will remain at about 1%, and the average level of the 7 day repo rate will remain between 4% and 5%.

Since the current open market operation is mainly to improve the liquidity of large banks, it is a statutory requirement.

CICC believes that the possibility of unifying the reserve ratio is not great, but it does not exclude the possibility of reducing the statutory ratio of some small and medium-sized banks.

In addition, the central bank announced on Monday that it will issue 1 billion yuan and 1 year central bank votes on 30, and the issue scale will be reduced by 2 billion yuan over the previous period.

This suggests that the central bank's withdrawal efforts have been reduced in a short time.

At the same time, the issuance rate of the central bank has attracted much attention. If it goes upward again, it means that interest rates will soon increase.

However, analysts expect that further tightening may soon be reduced in the short term as the reserve base has just been expanded.