In the context of the expected relaxation of the macro level, PTA

PTA futures in the 8000 yuan / ton line competition is fierce, is located in the key point.

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PTA price approaches cost line

PX spot dropped sharply to $1400 / ton, but in October, it settled at $1620 / tonne.

At the same time, the PX quotation in November was near $1500 / ton CFR.

Domestic Sinopec's PX settlement in October 2011 was 11950 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton compared with September, equivalent to the import level of 1572 US dollars / ton.

Its November contract pre payment price was issued at 12000 yuan / ton or 1585 US dollars / ton.

It is calculated that the cost of PTA contract goods in November is about 8800, and the dynamic cost can be lower.

Spot PTA current price in the vicinity of 8300 yuan / ton, and dynamic cost is close to flat.

Polyester enterprises cope with weak market

But at the end of PTA10, the contract price of the mainstream suppliers is still 9750 yuan / ton, and the price difference with the spot price is about 800 yuan. The downstream polyester enterprises are forced to give up their profit margins of nearly 800 yuan / ton by using the contract goods, and the spot profit of polyester enterprises is between 1000 and 2000.

Affected by this, the profit margins of the downstream enterprises are narrowed, and the purchasing power of the terminal looms is very small.

Since November, it has basically maintained the production and sales rate of 5 to 7 percent, and 11 to December is facing financial pressure at the end of the year. In January, it is facing the pressure of product sales of the Spring Festival. Therefore, most polyester enterprises will still mainly think about controlling product inventory.

Under the dual pressure of demand reduction and cost squeeze, polyester enterprises are likely to reduce operating rate to cope with the current situation, and the actual market has already responded.

No new polyester plant was put into operation in October. On the contrary, Jiangsu Hengli set up a 200 thousand ton polyester plant, a 250 thousand ton polyester plant in Jiangsu Huahong chemical fibre plant, a factory in Jiangsu's three Lane Lane and a Shaoxing Jiabao chemical fiber factory.

After the National Day holiday in October, for the sake of bank lending and other issues, enterprises still choose to switch on or increase their load according to the plan when they can still maintain capital production without serious losses. Therefore, the rate of opening up of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving has a short recovery after the national day.

However, after the second half of October, inventory prices continued to shrink, and some of the weaving enterprises began to stop and decline.

The volume of fabric market shows the market characteristics of "peak season", which is far from the same period last year.

Although looking at the whole industry chain of PTA, tight funds and the continuous reduction of product prices in various sectors are the main theme in recent years, the current stock level of polyester enterprises has hit the high point at the beginning of the year. Compared with the large losses at the beginning of the year, the current situation is not bad. Generally, there are profit margins. Together with lessons learned at the beginning of the year, polyester enterprises are more cautious and have made actions such as reducing production and shipping, so as to relieve their pressure.

Because the whole industry is adjusting the price, as long as the inventory level is maintained at a reasonable location, cash flow will not be a problem, which will help late polyester enterprises to get out of the predicament.