The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar fell again on the 8 day, reaching the lower limit of the Japanese trading range for seventh consecutive trading days. RMB The limit indicates that funds are beginning to recirculate to some extent, and they have been withdrawn from emerging markets into developed economies, and domestic commodities are facing the withdrawal of funds. pressure " Huang Junfei, manager of Changjiang futures research and consulting department, told reporters.

Recently, the volume of domestic commodity futures market showed a sharp decline. Data show that the volume and volume of the National Futures Market in November Turnover Compared with the same period, they fell by 47.19% and 38.58% respectively. By the beginning of December, the volume of trading on the three major commodity exchanges was at a low level.

Deutsche Bank recently said that the possible tightening of capital will bring financing difficulties to commodities trading, and next year it may cause raw material prices to fall sharply. There is also analysis that the future trend of commodities may face more capital tightening tide impact, because nearly ten years of capital flooding, to the commodity market has brought a huge bubble.

The contraction of capital market is regarded as a corroboration of the bad economic situation. Zhang Xiaolei, director of Jinpeng Institute of economics, told reporters that the "China demand" of commodities is a hot topic for a long time, but it will be more difficult for China to maintain its high growth rate, which will be bad for commodities.

The appreciation of the renminbi once pushed up China's demand for bulk commodities. With the RMB's daily decline, the expectation of depreciation is going on, and the trend of commodities will be disturbed again.

From the point of view of import and export trade, in general, depreciation of the RMB will expand exports and curb imports. Liu Xintian, editor in chief of the business community, believes that because China's bulk commodities are mainly imported, the impact of depreciation on commodities will be negative. With the decline in purchasing power, the import of commodities will be incrementally reduced. Zhang Xiaolei believes that most of the imported goods are used in the US dollar as a settlement currency. The depreciation of the RMB is equivalent to the increase in the import price, but the traders are not too willing to accept the reality at present.

In terms of different varieties, copper and non-agricultural metals such as soybeans and cotton will all be heavily affected by imported high dependence varieties, while chemical products will be imported mainly from petroleum and other raw materials, and the impact of related varieties will be lagged behind.

On the export side, China's export growth has declined over the past two months, due to the impact of the global economic downturn. It is expected that the export situation will be more severe next year. Huang Junfei believes that in the medium to long term, exchange rate changes will be beneficial to the mitigation of export pressure.

In recent months, commodities have been agitated by news of the "global economic downturn" and "European debt crisis". In the eyes of analysts, the depreciation of the renminbi is only a secondary factor, and the impact of the macro-economy on commodities will still be stronger than the depreciation of the renminbi.