In March 5th, Wen Jiabao In a report on the work of the government at the five session of the eleven National People's Congress, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 7.5% in 2012. This is China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for the first time in eight years, less than 8%. For the first time, Xie Guozhong, an independent economist, was connected. Xie Guozhong believes that the government's work report put forward this year's GDP growth target of 7.5%, showing the fear of China's economic expectations. He said that 2012 was the most unstable year in the past 20 years, and that a political crisis could engulf many major countries facing transformation. The decline of China's economic growth is mainly affected by two aspects of export and real estate investment. China's economy is totally dependent on local government investment. With the emergence of bad debts, the spending power of local governments will inevitably be limited. Therefore, the Chinese economy is likely to decline sharply in the second half of this year.

Mentioned in the report Market regulation There is a certain effect, most cities housing prices fell. Xie Guozhong believes that this data should be a drop in real estate sales. "For Beijing, Shanghai and other tens of millions of metropolis, housing prices may be stronger, but for the two or three tier cities, especially in the suburbs of some second tier cities, house prices will drop more." Xie Guozhong said. The building area under construction at present is 4 billion 600 million square meters, of which the residential area accounts for 3 billion 300 million square meters, which is equivalent to the 15 year urbanization process in China. Too large excess inventory will make it almost impossible to achieve the real estate price rise.

Xie Guozhong said that the current situation is that developers do not sell houses, banks do not borrow money. Banks and governments have been supporting developers. If they can not be digested, developers will have a huge blow to local governments. To some extent, local governments have protected developers. This climate has already formed. Local governments and developers hope that the restriction policy can be loosened. They believe that the main problem in China's property market is the restriction. "The real estate market in China is actually a big bubble. It seems to have brought hope to many people, but in fact it has not." Xie Guozhong said. He believes that this year's restriction policy will loose to a certain extent in the second half of the year, mainly because the government and developers will not be able to afford it, but at present, policy loosening is only a dream.

Speaking of stock market, Xie Guozhong thinks that Chinese stock market In the near future, there is a problem in the mode, the export growth rate is reduced, the economy has entered a downward channel, and the stock market is bound to have no good days. China's stock market has dropped from 6000 to more than 2000, which has already indicated that our mode has had a lot of problems. If China's economy has a clearer path to development, the stock market will still have a big rise. But the reality is that there is a bubble in the real estate industry, the automobile industry has been saturated, and the living standard of the ordinary people has not been greatly improved. It is impossible for the stock market to make money, because the transaction itself does not generate wealth. In China's stock market, most companies are actually making money from the stock market, rather than making money for the stock market, let alone making money for shareholders.