Will Columbia become Adidas and will the Pathfinder become Lining?

Unavoidable questions.

It is predicted that in China

Since the establishment of the outdoor Association of commodities and Commerce (COCA) in 2007, outdoor brands have entered gold for ten years, and after 2017, outdoor brands will decline. This is the "golden ten year curse" that the industry has to admit.

Ten years of sports brand

An interesting phenomenon is that although many terminal consumers are bargaining with exhibitors at the outdoor goods fair, which reporters interviewed, exhibitors seldom concession.

In the east gate of Shenzhen, which is listed as one of the ten largest pedestrian streets in the country, there are rows of Nike.

Anta and other sporting goods shops have launched promotional slogans such as "buy one get one", "1 yuan and 2 times", and even some stores are willing to sell 80 percent off.

For Lining and other domestic brands, the decline of the industry is often accompanied by a sharp drop in share prices, sharp decline in orders, performance setbacks, stock surges, personnel earthquakes, and so on. For Adidas and other foreign brands, moving out of China seems to be the most direct and effective way to avoid disaster.

If we compare the domestic and foreign sports brands, it is easy to find that the market environment faced by Lining and other domestic brands is even worse, because these enterprises do not have the ability to integrate resources globally, so although the economic downturn is a common problem all over the world, Chinese enterprises are more difficult in the sporting goods industry.

A loyal fan of Adidas told reporters that Adidas had a campaign ten years ago.

400 yuan. Now it's still the price.

At that time, it was sky high, and it could be bought in the provincial capital. Now it has become the price of Chinese cabbage. In general, there are all counties in the city, so Adidas has been reduced to luxury goods from the luxury market in the Chinese market.

Ten years ago, with the promotion of Adidas, the local sports brand rapidly rose and landed in the capital market successively.

It is widely believed that the cost performance of Lining and Anta is not comparable.

When Nike was bad, the sports brand gold, which had been in 2001, has stopped abruptly in the past ten years.

Reporters clearly remember that Lining in CCTV's program interview has publicly stated that Zhang Zhiyong's appointment as Lining CEO is conducive to the company's "going to Lining".

The result is still in the ears, Zhang Zhiyong has resigned from Lining.

How to avoid warning

Simply reducing the decline of sports brand to the pformation of consumption structure and the decline of economic prosperity is obviously unfair. During the ten years of sports brand gold, the speed of Anta and PEAK's crazy expansion is shocking.

At the beginning of this year, outdoors Anta stores were close to 9000, and even came up with the word "open shop". PEAK's stores were close to 8000.

Now, the main business of PEAK and other companies is selling.

The sale of shoes has become a "demolition", that is, a large-scale closure of stores. PEAK expects that the number of stores will be reduced to around 6500 by the end of this year, which will be reduced by nearly 1500 from the beginning of this year.

From the earnings data of Lining and other companies and the growth rate of the stores, Lining did gain a lot from new stores in the early ten years of gold. However, in the middle and later stages, the devil's law of diminishing marginal utility began to exert power. At this time, opening a shop is equivalent to a loss.

If the outdoor products industry is also subject to the "golden ten years curse", can the outdoor brand avoid the warning of sports brand in the early ten years of gold?

Referring to the case of Chinese sports goods companies' collective listing, if the successors of Sanfo outdoor and Columbia steps are successfully listed, then the outdoor products industry will usher in a critical period.

Because the market timing of PEAK sports is just the end of ten years of sports brand industry. If the outdoor products industry wants to get rid of the curse, it must continue to expand or speed up product upgrading.

CICC research shows that the expansion of the outdoor industry is not unlimited, and even the number of outlets for the Pathfinder is 3000.

It is not inadvisable to compare Columbia and the explorer to Adidas and Lining respectively.

A worrying problem is that Columbia, which has been in zero growth for many years in the US market, will take the Sino Japanese market as a profit growth point through strategic adjustment. Once the Sino Japanese market is saturated, Columbia will be able to emulate Adidas's tilt towards Southeast Asia and how the Pathfinder will turn. This may be a topic for the industry to ponder.