In November 5th, the ICE disk was in a "dilemma" situation. In the short term, it was still difficult to shake off and adjust the pattern. The direction was still unclear, and the contract closed to the 70 cents / pound mark in December. On the one hand, China's public inspection lint more than 83% of them entered the national treasury, while in 2013,

Quota issuance will be "strictly tight". Under the premise that the quality and output of real estate cotton are all depressed, domestic cotton prices or the power to hit bottom rebound can not be ignored by ICE. On the other hand, cotton is in line with ICE delivery conditions, and cotton prices have increased significantly. The external market, especially grain products prices, have been dragging down the formation of ICE cotton futures. The main position of ICE cotton futures is moving to the March contract, and the extension of trading will make the December contract trend relatively weak.

Analysis of the industry, in the middle of November ICE12 month contract or will continue to explore the bottom of 70-73 cents, but the middle and long line fell 70 or even 68 cents, the possibility of pushing towards 65 cents pass.

November 6th, domestic ports

商保稅棉、清關棉的報價基本未做調整，一方面是一些大中型進口商經過9、10月份的集中甩貨，外棉庫存壓力已有明顯減輕，雖然進口外棉的虧損額度普遍在3000元/噸甚至4000元/噸以上，但流動資金短期得到補充，幾家大型貿易公司保稅棉集中在4000-8000噸，在港保稅棉超過10000噸的并不多，在中國政府收儲量已近200萬噸的情況下，貿易商賭高等級棉短缺的情緒正在恢復;另一方面無論從可用的進口配額數(shù)量還是年底前可選擇的進口外棉品種、數(shù)量上來講都沒有多大空間，明年2月中旬前到港的保稅棉、船期棉并不發(fā)愁進入不了中國市場，印度棉因出口政策彈性比較大，而且相對美棉、西非棉價格優(yōu)勢已不大，中國進口企業(yè)大多不肯簽“免責”或“要替代”交貨條件。

Recently, some foreign businessmen tried to figure out the number of contracts that the domestic cotton importers would push to 2013. If the spot price of ICE and foreign cotton in 2013 remained unchanged, how many of these contracts could be implemented, and some importers estimated that the total import contract to be executed in 2013 would be no less than 400 thousand tons, which could theoretically import, accounting for about 50% of the 894 thousand tons of cotton import quotas.

In November 6th, a cotton trader in Qingdao quotes, India cotton S-61-5/32 "adopts 40% full tariff import quotation of 18300-18350 yuan / ton, S-61-1/8" imports 40% yuan in full tariff, 18100-18150 yuan / ton, and Australia cotton SM1-5/32 "clear cotton" price is as high as 20500-20600 yuan / ton, SM1-1/8 "Zimbabwe cotton price 19350-19400 yuan / ton."

According to the quotation, the price of outer cotton is still 300-500 yuan / ton price difference compared with Xinjiang cotton (considering cotton grade and spinnability, net weight and public settlement), but most of them are used.

Industry, the lack of import quotas is the biggest obstacle to the entry of cheap cotton.