The Sino US agreement on textiles will expire at the end of this year, but even Americans now believe that the possibility of a "blowout" of China's textile and apparel exports to the US next year will be minimal when the quota is lifted in 2005.

Because most of the 2008 has passed, the average utilization rate of the 21 quotas for textiles and clothing in the United States is only 42.7% (up to September 8th).

This year, the demand for the US market weakened, and the factors such as the appreciation of RMB, the rising cost of labor and raw materials, and other factors superimposed on China's textile and clothing trade to the unexpected "cold winter".

In the first half of the year, the export of clothing and accessories in China increased by only 3.4%, an increase of 18.3 percentage points over the same period last year. In particular, Guangdong, the largest textile and garment exporting province in China, had thousands of garment enterprises withdrawing from the export market because of the abrupt change of export environment, and the export volume of garments dropped by 31.3% in the first half of the year.

According to the data released by customs in September 10th, the export of clothing and clothing accessories in China 1~8 US $75 billion 30 million this year, an increase of only 2.6%, an increase of 19.7 percentage points from the same period last year, and an increase of 22.4% in textile yarns, fabrics and products 43 billion 920 million dollars.

In August, China exported textiles and clothing to US $18 billion 592 million, a decrease of nearly US $100 million from last month.

The export peak season plus tax rebate rate increase is all for enterprises to reduce pressure, but the industry has not turned the slightest downturn.

Zhu Sujun, assistant chief executive officer of Ningbo Shanshan stock (600884) Co., Ltd., said that in August, the peak period of processing of clothing domestic trade and foreign trade orders was usually due to frequent orders due to excessive orders.

Recently, there have been some changes in the factors that plagued exports. The US dollar has strengthened, the appreciation of the renminbi has slowed down against the US dollar, and the price of international oil and raw materials has declined.

The fact is not necessarily the case.

CLSA's latest China manufacturing report shows that in August, the purchasing managers index (PMI) was 49.2, down from 53.3 in July, the first time that the index of manufacturing industry has shrunk since November 2005.

The new export orders also shrank for the first time in 21 months.

Zhou Shijian, executive director of the China International Trade Association, said that the US dollar strengthened against the euro and yen in the two quarter of this year. The yuan also strengthened against the euro and yen. This does not mean that the US economy is improving. It is that the European Union and Japan's economy are dragged down by the subprime mortgage crisis, and the situation is worse than the US.

Textile and garment exports in the first half of this year are not satisfactory enough by the European Union and other markets. It is expected that China's exports to Europe, the United States and Japan will fall in the second half of this year.

In order to prevent a large number of textile and garment labor-intensive enterprises from closing down, the government must increase support for small and medium-sized enterprises. At present, the export tax rebate rate alone is far from enough.