China's textile and apparel exports this year amounted to 14 billion 854 million US dollars, up 30% over the same period last year.

Exports to the United States increased by 81% and exports to the EU increased by 70%.

The high export growth has attracted the call of Europe and the us to impose special safeguard measures on Chinese textiles.

If Europe and the United States start special safeguard measures, how much impact will it have on China's textile and garment industry?

After the abolition of quotas, China's textile and apparel exports to the original quota markets such as Europe and the United States exceeded expectations. It is not ruled out that some enterprises are eager to win new customers and reduce prices due to the open market in Europe and the United States. However, we believe that the most important reason is that the demand for good and cheap textiles in Europe and the United States is truly released after the quota has been abolished.

　　首先，中國紡織品服裝在無配額的日本市場占其進(jìn)口比重70%以上，但在歐美市場比重不到20%，應(yīng)該說增長長期受到配額壓制；其次，從2003年以來中國服裝出口價格一直在回升，2005年已達(dá)2.40美元/件，低價傾銷的說法并不成立，出口增加是市場需求的必然結(jié)果；　　再者，2004年以來中國實際上對紡織品出口施加了比較嚴(yán)厲的限制措施，先是出口退稅下降4個百分點，后又對6大類148個品種加征出口關(guān)稅，2005年3月1日又推出《紡織品出口自動許可證暫行辦法》，但中國紡織品服裝出口增長依然強勁，只能說明中國紡織品服裝太具市場吸引力；最后，雖然美元匯率的跌勢對中國紡織品服裝出口有推動作用，但對設(shè)限國家的出口增長遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過非設(shè)限國家，充分顯示了設(shè)限國家對中國紡織品服裝需求之強勁，而且事實上2005年美元走勢較為平穩(wěn)，出口的增長是需求的真實

Reflect.

Because of the huge demand market, European and American restrictive measures can not stop the export growth of Chinese textile and clothing.

Europe and the United States impose restrictions on China's textiles and clothing, and the provisions on safeguard measures and special safeguard measures in the 242 and 245-250 paragraph of the report on China's accession to the working group and the 16 article of China's accession to the WTO agreement.

The safeguards stipulate that the restrictions on restricted varieties should not exceed 1 years, and generally do not repeat restrictions on the same products. Special safeguard measures also stipulate that one restriction can only be implemented if necessary.

It can be seen that the limitation of safeguard measures and special safeguard measures is far weaker than quotas.

In the 2002-2004 year, the annual compound growth rate of China's textile and clothing exports is 21.75% under the restriction of quotas. If the quota is cancelled, the export growth rate will not be lower than the previous level even if there are restrictive measures. The growth rate is expected to be between 25-30% in 2005.

At present, the restrictions in Europe and America are most likely to help us to limit export growth to such a range.

It is generally believed that the continuing high growth in China's textile and garment industry is the dominant trend after the abolition of quotas.

So how long will this trend last?

What are the factors that affect the development of the industry?

From the perspective of the development rule of the textile industry, when the per capita GDP of a country is more than 4000 US dollars, its domestic fiber price will show an obvious downward trend.

At present, China's per capita GDP has just exceeded 1000 US dollars. At the same time, the characteristics of China's large population also decide that the position of textile industry as pillar industry in China will not change in the next few decades.

Due to long-term quota restrictions, China's textile and clothing exports account for less than 25% of the world's total exports.

We believe that the textile and clothing exports will have an obvious increase from 2005 to 2008 after the quota is abolished. The proportion will increase to 35-40%, and the proportion of imports to Europe and the United States will also be close to 40%.

After that, the growth rate will begin to slow down due to the increase in base number, but the absolute growth trend will continue to be maintained.

Growth will shift from total volume expansion to qualitative upgrading brought about by technological upgrading and product upgrading.

At present, the main factors that affect the development speed of China's textile industry are the global economic environment, the national industrial policy and the price of raw materials.

After the quota was abolished, textile trade was re integrated into the orbit of global integration. The growth of China's textile and clothing exports will get rid of the fetters of quotas and rely mainly on the release of global consumption, which is closely related to the speed of global economic development.

Of course, China's industrial policy still has a strong ability to control textile industry.

For example, the export rebate rate of textile products in 2004 decreased by an average of 4 percentage points, and the impact on gross profit margin of the industry was also 4 percentage points.