According to the US Department of agriculture (USDA) February cotton The supply and demand forecast shows that the supply and demand of the global cotton market in 2013/2014 has changed to a favorable direction, and the surplus gap has narrowed, but the overall situation is still oversupply, with an excess of 1 million 565 thousand tons. Among them, output was 25 million 402 thousand tons, 249 thousand tons less than forecast in December 2013, consumption of 23 million 837 thousand tons, and reduction of 3 thousand tons. In addition, the final inventory of global cotton in 2013/2014 reached 21 million 3 thousand tons, which has been increasing continuously for 4 years, and has also hit a record high since 1960.

China's cotton supply and demand pattern is very similar to that of the world, of which the output is predicted to be 6 million 967 thousand tons, 653 thousand tons less than the previous year, and consumption of 7 million 838 thousand tons, unchanged from the previous year. China's cotton supply and demand is still a pattern of oversupply, but the surplus has narrowed down from 4 million 208 thousand tons in the previous year to 1 million 524 thousand tons. But 12 million 478 thousand tons of final inventory has far exceeded cotton consumption in one year. Stock Under pressure, it is difficult to predict the new cotton prices in China in the new year.

China's cotton storage and storage for three years has made domestic cotton stocks high. According to USDA's forecast data, China's cotton stocks account for 59.4% of the world's total. At the same time, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices continued to be high and is still hovering at the high price range of 3400~4400 yuan / ton. In the later stage, the effective return of cotton's de stocking and poor cotton price will be the main trend of cotton price trend.

Cotton after Spring Festival Throwing and storing work Immediately began selling, and cotton purchasing and storage work will continue in February 17th. Overall, throwing and storing will continue to dominate the cotton market this year. As of February 28th, China's cotton storage and storage totaled 5 million 940 thousand tons, and the total volume of dumping and storage was 595 thousand tons. Altogether, the total stock of cotton reserves in China is as high as 10 million 765 thousand tons, enough to meet the cotton consumption demand of the coming year. The suppression of high inventory will continue to restrict the uplink of China's cotton price operation.

In addition, it is worth noting that the effective return of cotton price difference at home and abroad will be difficult to achieve quickly, which is expected to be a slow process.

At present, the main source of supply in China's cotton market is the cotton sold by the state at the price of 18000 yuan / ton, and from the auction situation of the enterprises, it is generally concluded that the textile enterprises basically follow suit with buying, and it is predicted that the cotton throwing and storing price will be much higher than the 18000 yuan / ton in the later period. Early market rumors that the country will reduce the auction price of throwing cotton to 17500 yuan / ton or 17250 yuan / ton, so 18000 yuan / ton or will become the new year cotton price running high point, that is to become the new year cotton price pressure level.