Since the PTA social inventory reached 2 million 200 thousand tons of historical peak in February this year, PTA has gone through inventory for four consecutive months. From 7 to August, the entire PTA factory was also relatively restrained. In the two months, it only increased 200 thousand tons of stock. In September, the market was relatively balanced, and PTA stocks basically did not increase.

October

In the first month after the crash, PTA's social inventories increased by 220 thousand tons.

We believe that the increase of 220 thousand tons of social inventories in October has been reflected in the price, corresponding to the low cost of 5300 yuan / ton.

At this stage, the PTA utilization rate is 70%, and the polyester start up rate is 79%. The capacity base of both is calculated according to 44 million tons. The supply and demand of PTA is basically balanced, and there is no increase in new social stocks.

The most direct pressure on price is stock. If someone throws goods or even sells them without cost, it will be most advantageous for short sellers.

The key to future market trend still depends on the market behavior of PTA factory.

In the case of lower demand, the impetus for PTA to continue to fall will come from an increase in supply.

Future

There are two possible paths for this trend: first, the PTA plant is reunited, and even if the price is more profitable than the cost, it will also maintain a relatively low operating rate. PTA may again climb to 7000 yuan / ton; two is the loss of trust among the PTA factories and their own wars.

We think the second paths are more likely.

In October, the ACP price of PX was US $1210 / ton, the average price of PX was US $1065 / ton, and the average PTA price of two PX corresponds to 5950 yuan / ton, which is the highest cost of PTA factory and the highest level of PTA price rebound.

To sum up, at this stage

There is a slight weakening of the market's contradictions, and the stock of society is no longer increasing. There is no real pressure on the price of the stock market.

Looking ahead, the PTA plant is hard to re alliance. After the PTA price rebounds to the cost line, the supply is likely to increase.