Viscose staple market is lack of bright spots. Downstream needs replenishment.

Viscose staple fiber market performance is still slack, lack of bright spots in the market, routine and differential.

Both are weak.

Mid - end products more than 11900 yuan pactions are rare, the focus of negotiations is more than 11800-11900 yuan.

The high-end is maintained at 12000-12100 yuan, and the manufacturer is less than 12000 yuan.

Intentions are not strong.

Downstream to maintain rigid demand

Rhythm, because of its own yarn orders and poor funds, procurement materials are generally cautious shrinkage.

Xiao Shao cotton yarn price is stable and weak, and market trading is slowing down.

Siro spinning 30S market discussed 17500-17800 yuan, tight race 40S quoted at 20000-25000 yuan.

Viscose staple fiber industry's operating rate is above 92%, and there are still 100 thousand tons of new projects in the late stage. We expect to adjust the viscose staple fibers later.

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Judging from the current situation, crude oil prices fell below 80 U.S. dollars / barrel, Canada's oil sand has no profit, and the price below the current price of 70 U.S. dollars / barrel, most shale oil has no profit.

However, if we want to force the North American oil company to stop shale oil exploitation, the price of crude oil must remain low for a long time. We believe that the latter OPEC will still maintain its existing output, and crude oil prices will remain low this year.

Therefore, when the price of crude oil is at a low level, the price of PTA is difficult to go against the trend.

In addition, polyester filament stocks are at a historic low.

As of November 21st, the average stock of polyester filament POY was 10.5 days, down 4 days from the end of September, decreased by 27.59%; the average stock of polyester filament DTY was 13.5 days, which was 6 days lower than that at the end of September, and decreased by 30.77%; the average stock of polyester filament FDY was 14.5 days, which was 2 days lower than that of September, and decreased by 12.12%.

As the stock of downstream polyester enterprises is in a low position, PTA enterprises in the early stage are interested in limiting production and insurance again, pushing up the price of PTA.

However, under the background of serious overcapacity in the PTA industry, the limited production and price protection of enterprises can not change the weak pattern of PTA prices. In addition, it is difficult for the oligarchs to limit production and insurance prices for long term maintenance. We believe that limited production and price protection can only cause a rebound in the price of PTA, but it can not change the downward trend of PTA prices.

In addition, from past years, the stock of polyester filament in November is often at a high level. However, because the price of crude oil has already suffered a setback, the market is short of market, and the downstream polyester enterprises are not willing to replenish the warehouse, so the strategy of buying and selling immediately is adopted. Therefore, in the context of PTA cost collapse, the demand deviates from the downstream inventory, and the collapse of cost may play a role in restraining demand.

To sum up, Saudi Arabia wants to push shale oil companies to stop production and reduce the initiative in the North American market by forcing crude oil prices down.

Therefore, before Saudi Arabia has realized its "desire", the price of crude oil is hard to change even in the peak season of consumption, which determines that the prices of chemical products will be dominated by disadvantaged in the coming period.

In addition, because PTA downstream enterprises are pessimistic about the market outlook and demand is hard to lift, I believe that PTA prices still have room to fall.