Although it is in the peak season of downstream demand, the operating rate of polyester industry is still 84.7% high for two years, but downstream demand will gradually fade after June. Under the background of China's sustained economic slowdown and shrinking export demand, the demand side is hard to get much better.

3, since April, the maintenance of PX and PTA devices is more concentrated. In addition, after the explosion of Tenglong aromatics PX plant, the 4 million 500 thousand ton PTA device also followed up and shut down, resulting in the short supply and demand of PTA and upstream PX, and the inventory is continuing. Digestion stage 。

Although Tenglong aromatics 1 million 600 thousand ton PX plant is difficult to reopen in the short term due to the explosion accident, most of the maintenance devices will be restarted after May. Specifically, Singapore's Jurong aromatics 800 thousand ton plant is expected to be restarted in mid 5; South Korea's S-OIL set of 1 million tons / year device is expected to restart before and after the end of May; HC Petrochemical two sets of PX plant total 1 million 180 thousand tons capacity is expected to be fully opened before and after the beginning of June. and PTA Although the short-term supply and demand is still in a tight state, the parking facilities of Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company will be reopened in early May and early June, when PTA dynamic supply and demand will return to a relaxed situation.

In addition to the restart pressure of the maintenance device, later stage New capacity The release pressure is still enormous. Since 2014, a large number of new PX installations have been put into operation, making the supply and demand pattern of PX turning loose. According to the plan, about 5 million 450 thousand tons of new PX capacity will be put into operation in 2015, of which 1 million 600 thousand tons of PX plant will be put into operation in June. In addition, PTA overcapacity pressure will further intensify. It is understood that the 1 million tons PTA plant is scheduled to be put into operation in June, and the new capacity of 2 million 200 thousand tons of HP Petrochemical will also be released in the fourth quarter.

From the terminal demand, the export data are relatively weak in the first quarter, whether it is a polyester product or a downstream textile and garment. The latest April textile and apparel data show that the slowdown is continuing. According to customs data, China's textile exports amounted to 9 billion 419 million US dollars in April, a decrease of 10.76% compared with the same period last year, and clothing exports amounted to US $10 billion 456 million, a decrease of 20.78% over the same period last year. In addition, the export volume of the Canton Fair, which has always been regarded as the "barometer" and "wind vane" of China's foreign trade, has dropped seven to 172 billion 96 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.64%, which further deepened the market's concerns about China's export situation in the next six months.