The pessimistic attitude of the industry to the long-term trend of the cotton market is mainly due to the continuous weakening of China's textile industry and cotton consumption.

"The golden age of China's textile industry is over."

Wang Qianjin, director of the Shanghai International Cotton Exchange Center, said that from the change of the main indicators in the textile industry, the amount of fiber processing decreased from 2002 to 12.8% in 2008 to 12.8% in 2014 and 5.6% in 2014. It is expected that the data will be further reduced to 2% in the period from 2015 to 2020. The domestic demand and export growth of the spinning industry also decreased from 19.9% and 23.7% to 3% and 5%.

Besides, our country

Consumption is also weakening.

2010 China

In 10 million - 11 million tons, in 2015, the figure dropped to 7 million tons, and the ratio of spinning to cotton decreased from 50% in 2010 to 35% this year.

Most industry participants from the industry chain are neutral and pessimistic about the long-term trend of the cotton market, but some people believe that the big pattern will not affect the small trend, and cotton prices will have good opportunities in the short term.

"Although the spot market

It will tend to be stable, but because of the higher reserve stock, the dumping and storage may become normal, and the trend of the future cotton market is still not optimistic.

Zhang Fuli, general manager of the central cotton storage information center, said that the probability of cotton prices still oscillating in the long term is very large, but the futures price is limited, and the market is likely to appear at any time.

In the overall pessimistic atmosphere, Yang Zhijiang, general manager of Shanghai business department, has different views.

He believes that although the current pattern of China's cotton market is not very optimistic, there are still good opportunities in the short term.

"The cost of imported cotton is converted by the cost of imported India yarn. When the domestic cotton price is not higher than the cost of imported cotton, it is difficult for India cotton yarn to enter China, so the bottom price will appear."

Yang Zhijiang believes that the bottom may be between 11600 and 11800 yuan / ton.

The representative of a cotton spot enterprise in Shanghai also agreed.

"With the reduction of cotton prices between inside and outside, the reasonable value of the 1% quota of imported cotton should be between 800 yuan and 1000 yuan per ton.

It is estimated that the reasonable price of cotton in China should be 12000 yuan / ton, and the cotton price is approaching this level.

This person thinks.