According to statistics, China's imports in April this year Cotton yarn 164 thousand and 600 tons, a year-on-year decline of 23.64%, a decrease of 13.61% compared to the same period. In 2016 1-4 months, China imported 632 thousand and 600 tons of cotton yarn, down 21.52% from the same period last year. From the data point of view, 3-5 cotton in China Textile mill The number of futures yarn in Southeast Asia (India, Pakistan, etc.), East Asia (Korea, China Taiwan) and Central Asia (main Uzbekistan) continued to shrink considerably. According to statistics, in April, the total export volume of India's cotton yarn was 136 thousand tons, down 32.6% from the same period last year, and fell by 3.54% compared with the same period. In April, Pakistan's cotton yarn decreased by 24.7% compared with that of the previous year. The author analyzes the difficulty of foreign yarn entering the Chinese market in 6-9 months. Although the Chinese government has not set restrictions on import quotas and import tariffs, some of the expected losses for traders scheduled for 6/7 C20-C32 will be increased as follows:

I. India and Pakistan cotton The price drop is narrow, and the cost of cotton yarn export competitiveness is further lost. First, the cost of raw materials for cotton yarn in Southeast Asia continues to rise. Compared with the late April, the general price rose 2.50 cents / pound, while the Chinese main port India cotton S-6's CNF quotation was only 71.40-71.50 cents / pound. In 2015, Brazil's Recap3 shipment and Recap4's CNF offer were 69.60 cents / pound and 68.60 cents / pound respectively; secondly, the supply of high grade and high quality cotton in India and Pakistan was very tight, the export volume was repeatedly compressed, and the cotton price was easy to rise and fall under the support of vigorous demand. Third, the export of India Pakistan's low count yarn in the international market met with the strong challenge of the cotton mills in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Africa, and the upgrading of equipment and product transformation were also imminent. The high count combed yarn, the combed high grade yarn and the new fiber yarn became the development direction. In late May, the factory price of S-6 and J34 ginning plants in India was stable at 70.10 cents / pound, 70.80 cents / pound.

Two, the role of China's national cotton reserves against foreign yarn imports is becoming more and more obvious. Cotton mills in Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Hebei and other places reflect that although the color level of domestic cotton has been reduced to "12", "13", "14", "22", "23" and so on, the fiber length, horse value, breaking ratio and so on are not only slightly worse than those of cotton lint in 2015/16, but there is no problem in spinning 21S-32S yarn. More importantly, cotton price is 10500-12000 yuan / ton, which is 500-1000 yuan / ton lower than that in 2015/16 year, and the cost of low yarn and low cost yarn has decreased considerably compared with that in 3 and April.

In the 2012 year, the remaining amount of imported cotton in the state store is about 300 thousand tons, which is about to be sold out. The cotton textile mills and traders' bidding and purchasing enthusiasm will rapidly cool down with the total output of imported cotton. On the one hand, from the volume of output, the quantity of 600 thousand tons is nearly a month's cotton consumption, and the cotton enterprises' state of "equal rice pot" has been effectively alleviated, and the replenishment action has slowed down; on the other hand, the national cotton auction price has been "low and high", and the blind price increases have made a large part of the enterprises that spin C32S or more cotton yarn have little profit or even no profit. The result of the hot price increase is "lifting stones to hit their own feet". As of May 30th, 553 thousand and 400 tons of cotton and 280 thousand and 400 tons of imported cotton were sold in the state cotton store (100%) at the beginning of the year. In May 30th, the proportion of State Cotton Storage fell below 88% for the first time, and the domestic cotton seed turnover rate was 86%. With China's auction and price increase to cool down, the price of the transaction will decline and even the hope of trading at the starting price will greatly increase. The cost of raw materials of China's textile enterprises will decline again, and the quotation of C21-C40 yarn will be flat or even more "upside down".

Three, the demand and purchase of cotton yarn will continue to drop in China's weaving factories and traders. 首先，按慣例6-8月份是中國紡織業(yè)的淡季，目前已有很多布廠、服裝廠、貿(mào)易商表示內(nèi)外需訂單呈現(xiàn)較為明顯的“退潮”，山東、河南、江浙等地的棉紡廠也反映5月份棉紗線的銷售、提貨形勢不如4月份，國內(nèi)低支棉紗、低配紗以及氣流紡的供應(yīng)呈現(xiàn)“飽和”“過?！臂E象;其次，與上游棉花現(xiàn)貨，國儲棉輪出以及鄭期、商品棉電子撮合等市場的“紅紅火火”相比，中游C21-C40S棉紗僅象征性的上漲了200-300元/噸，高支紗、精紗廠則“原地踏步”;下游坯布、面料、服裝“價量”表現(xiàn)的更為“消極”，產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈“腸梗塞”問題非常突出，再加上染整費用、染料費大幅上漲(漲幅超過10%甚至15%)，布廠和貿(mào)易商虧損比較普遍，減產(chǎn)、少接單成為織造企業(yè)的通常做法;再次國內(nèi)中小紗廠的產(chǎn)品的庫存再次回升，“去庫存”又成為6-9月份棉紡織廠“斷臂求生”的唯一辦法。