From the statistics point of view, as at the end of June, the enterprises still have 35-40 tons of 1% tons of cotton import quotas within the tariff, which have not yet been used, and the spinning enterprises are buying good water with good steel on the knife edge. ICE cotton boom is not conducive to the import of cotton, even if the quota of cotton import is increased, so high.

Spot prices have also hinders buyers.

ICE cotton and international cotton prices rose sharply, so that the difference between inside and outside cotton prices was reduced again. The cost of cotton yarn in India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia rose sharply, and the quotations for FOB, CNF and CIF will be greatly upwards. The number of yarns under C40S and below is even with domestic yarns and even "upside down" is coming again.

The competitiveness of domestic yarns, grey fabrics and garments has been improved. The ICE cotton boom has more advantages than the cotton manufacturers in China. The spinning of low spun yarn, low spun yarn and OE yarn that just turned to India and other Southeast Asian enterprises has not landed or will be reflued again, and further stimulate the Chinese cotton flower consumption ability.

However, I do not fully agree with this view. The reasons are as follows:

First of all, the cotton spinning industry has a long production cycle, and the external sales space caused by the increase in cotton prices is not smooth.

Generally speaking, from yarn orders to orders, delivery generally takes 45-60 days. Since the middle of June, domestic spinning, weaving, clothing and foreign trade companies have entered into orders, sent orders and produced off-season, plus the paction price of state cotton and cotton, and the rise of Zheng cotton futures.

Inventories continue to rise slightly.

Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and other foreign trade companies said that the orders received in 5 and June were enlarged because of a huge increase in the price of cotton. The enthusiasm of the agent to be delivered according to the contract was not high, and the purchase of the appropriate raw materials was not available.

The shortage of cotton yarn index has become a pretext for the cotton mill. The new order is not stable because of the cotton price.

Second, Vietnam, India and Pakistan cotton mill FOB and CNF quotation adjustment slowly, the internal and external yarn price "upside down" phenomenon basically disappeared, China imports or comeback.

From the survey, although the factory price of S-6 ginning mill in mid July was as high as 86.90 cents / pound, the CNF quotation of C21-C32 yarn of the India Pakistan cotton mill remained at 2.30-2.33 US dollars / kg, 2.62-2.65 US dollars / kg, which only increased by 0.01-0.02 dollars / kg compared with last week. Vietnam's C32SA yarn quoted price is 2.65-2.67 US dollar / kg, and the confidence of the mills and exporters is not enough. The profits of foreign manufacturers have been greatly reduced, and the proportion of production and production cuts has been increasing.

Contrast with the caution of the rising yarn, the price of domestic yarn has risen by 500-800 yuan / ton, and 40S high combed yarn has risen 1000-1200 yuan / ton. Under the premise that cotton price has risen 1800-2000 yuan / ton, textile enterprises have no profit margin and no profit to downstream clothing and trading companies.

In addition, the cost of importing high-quality cotton with cotton enterprises has risen sharply.

Judging from the cotton blending of high spinning yarn, the color grade of national cotton in 2012 and 2013 is mainly "21", "22", "13", "14" and so on. With the disadvantages of high content and poor consistency of "three silk", it is impossible to achieve the contract requirements for spinning 40S and more count combed yarn and high yarn. Therefore, most of the cotton mills currently use high quality national storage cotton + imported Australian cotton (or American cotton), 2012 annual storage cotton and +2015/16 cotton Xinjiang cotton.