On September 17, 2018, the US government announced that it would levy an import duty of 10% on the $200 billion commodity originally produced in China from September 24th, and will raise the tariff rate to 25% in January 1, 2019.

Subsequently, the Chinese side decided to impose tariffs on the commodities listed in the United States and Canada on the announcement of the 63 announcement of the Ministry of Commerce and the 6 of the Tax Committee's Announcement No. 6. The tariff was added to the 2493 items of tax goods listed in Annex 1 and 1078 tax items listed in Annex 2, and the customs duties were added to the 974 items of tax goods listed in Annex 3 and the tax items collected in the annex 974 of the 6 items.

Sino US trade war escalated again and again.

Exports at the same time, but also long-term bearish domestic cotton consumption, internal and external cotton dropped significantly, ICE cotton fell to the lowest level in the past six months, once again broken 80 cents line, Zheng cotton main contract 1901 decline was close to 4%, 16000 yuan / ton.

US cotton import costs rise

　　美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)2000億進(jìn)口商品加征關(guān)稅名單中，棉花、紡織產(chǎn)品等位列其中，我國(guó)近幾年年度棉花進(jìn)口量百余噸，美棉進(jìn)口量占據(jù)“半壁江山”，據(jù)海關(guān)最新統(tǒng)計(jì)，2018年1-7月份我國(guó)累計(jì)進(jìn)口棉花82萬(wàn)噸，同比增加13%，2017/18年度以來(lái)(2017.9-2018.7)我國(guó)累計(jì)進(jìn)口棉花117萬(wàn)噸，同比增加14%)，2017年我國(guó)進(jìn)口美棉數(shù)量同比幾近翻倍，在美棉質(zhì)量以及價(jià)格等優(yōu)于其他進(jìn)口國(guó)家的背景下，2018年美棉進(jìn)口數(shù)量仍有增加預(yù)期，但進(jìn)口關(guān)稅提高后，配額內(nèi)進(jìn)口美棉的稅率將從1%升至26%，對(duì)應(yīng)的進(jìn)口成本將直接提高3300元/噸以上，美棉進(jìn)口數(shù)量或處于停滯狀態(tài)，另外自2016年以來(lái)國(guó)儲(chǔ)棉大規(guī)模拋儲(chǔ)，國(guó)儲(chǔ)棉庫(kù)存大比例下降，預(yù)計(jì)本年度拋儲(chǔ)約260萬(wàn)噸，國(guó)儲(chǔ)棉庫(kù)存數(shù)量余量240萬(wàn)噸左右，位于安全庫(kù)存臨界線，預(yù)計(jì)2019年以后，國(guó)儲(chǔ)棉凈投放可能性偏小，為保證國(guó)家儲(chǔ)備或以輪入為主，國(guó)內(nèi)供需

The gap will be

To make up for the high import price of US cotton, the 1% tariff quota of imported cotton in the late stage or the purchase of cotton with high quality grade may be good for cotton, black cotton and West African cotton in the future, while the newly increased 800 thousand tons sliding quota or India cotton with relatively low price.

Downstream enterprises in the domestic market have greater impact.

The impact of Sino US trade disputes on cotton is mainly concentrated on increasing tariffs. Our competitiveness in the export of textiles and clothing in the United States has weakened, and the United States has increased the cost of our imports of cotton.

The trade war has intensified again, and the first is the domestic textile and garment enterprises.

The share of export accounts for about 17% of the total export share, and the cost of cotton increases after the Levy of tariffs. The increase in the cost of downstream spinning products will further compress the profits of cotton spinning enterprises, thereby reducing the export competitiveness of textile enterprises. On the other hand, the increase in domestic cost will cause resistance to the development of spinning enterprises, and the domestic cotton consumption demand will also be affected by linkage, resulting in a negative situation for domestic cotton market.

Zheng cotton short term hard to change

Zheng cotton main contract 1901 in 15900 yuan / ton line to find support, the support needs to be verified.

In addition, affected by the crash of the futures market, the purchase price of new cotton seed cotton has dropped 0.1-0.5 yuan / Jin during the day, while the recent cotton substitute is polyester.

The sharp drop in the cotton market has also made it worse. The pessimism of the trade war and the market will spread.