Abstract:

Investment strategy: short-term defense oriented, layout performance certainty target.

Maintain neutral rating of plates.

In the context of macroeconomic downturns, the outlook for the industry boom is still uncertain. Although the intensive consumption policy is conducive to overcoming pessimistic expectations to a certain extent, it is expected that short-term data will remain under pressure due to the high base number of Q1 last year due to the cold winter and the lag of the spring Festival.

We should continue to propose three dimensions, namely, differentiation of consumption, intergenerational change and industrial upgrading, to select leading enterprises in high quality track, in line with the development trend of the industry, and in the subdivision sector already has certain competitive advantages.

In the short term, we suggest that we should focus on meeting the current consumption trends, and achieve high growth through endogenous extension, which is not affected by the fluctuation of performance base in the short term.

Plate ten years to re plate: with the fundamentals as the axis, industrial pformation is expected to be strong leader Heng Qiang

We divided the market trend of the spinning and weaving board in 08 years -18 into four segments.

第一階段：08 年初-11 年Q2，板塊收益率持續(xù)跑贏大盤，服裝家紡板塊處于行業(yè)高速成長期，競爭寬松，眾多龍頭上市，業(yè)績高速成長，紡織制造板塊雖然競爭激烈，但要素成本較低，且下游需求旺盛；第二階段：11 年Q3-13 年Q2, 板塊收益率跑輸大盤，服裝家紡板塊行業(yè)增速下滑，渠道變革和競爭加劇下板塊公司基本面表現(xiàn)掙扎，紡織制造板塊受棉價(jià)大幅下跌、人力成本上漲以及環(huán)保壓力陡增影響，業(yè)績下滑較大；第三階段：13 年Q3-16 年底，板塊收益率跑贏大盤但后期波動(dòng)明顯，行業(yè)基本面出現(xiàn)分化，但在市場(chǎng)風(fēng)格偏好中小票背景下，板塊走勢(shì)較好；第四階段：17 年初-18 年末，板塊跑輸大盤，17 年個(gè)別子板塊復(fù)蘇，但18 年經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力下板塊承壓明顯，其中龍頭企業(yè)改革已初見成效，未來有望實(shí)現(xiàn)強(qiáng)者恒強(qiáng)。

Textile and clothing / cosmetics retail sales increased by 8.1/ 10.5% over the same period in 1-11 months.

In 18 years and 1-11 months, the retail sales of clothing above the limit increased by 8.1%, an increase of 0.5pct over the same period last year, while the retail sales of cosmetics increased by 10.5% over the same period last year, a decrease of 2.0pct over the same period last year, while the social zero increased by 9.1%, a decrease of 1.2pct over the same period last year.

On the whole, compared with other consumer categories, the overall performance of the clothing sector has been steadily rising for 18 years, but the growth rate of the cosmetics sector is slowing down obviously.

In addition, during the 1-11 months, online retail sales increased by 24.1%, of which 25.4% of the online retail sales of physical goods increased, and the penetration rate was 18.2%.

Market Overview: in December, the overall plate fell 3.5%, and lost 1.5 points.

In December, the SW textile and clothing index fell 3.5%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 2%, and the plate lost 1.5 points.

Among them, textile manufacturing fell 3.2%, apparel home textiles fell 3.6%.

Judging from the annual market changes, as of 12.31, the SW textile and apparel index fell 33.5%, the running loss index of 13.9 points, of which the textile manufacturing sector fell 33.1%, the apparel home textile plate fell 33.5%, respectively running the index 13.4, 13.9 points.

Risk warning: consumption expectations are uncertain, and industry continues to decline.