Since the middle of November, aggregate cost has been stable and strong. It also has certain support for the polyester staple market. However, in order to take into account the demand side acceptance, the price of PET staple has not risen significantly, and the area of industrial loss has gradually expanded. In the last month of 2019, considering the high cost and weak demand, it is estimated that the price of PET staple will not be substantially adjusted.

Aggregate cost in 2019 showed a downward trend overall, especially with the increase of private refinery and PTA and MEG supply pressure. The price declines significantly during the year. The price of PET staple fiber has also been falling along with raw materials. By mid November, the market price has dropped to a new low in July 2016. Some market participants have asserted that the price of direct spun polyester staple fiber will fall below 6500 yuan / ton during the year. But in the last 1 months, the market price has been supported by the fact that the profit level of all products in the industry chain has been wiped out.

chart 12019 Change trend of annual aggregate cost

Cost, the recent increase in aggregate cost is mainly due to the rise of ethylene glycol. Due to continued low port inventories, spot supply is still tight, short-term prices will remain strong, while downstream polyester factories have announced year-end maintenance, but the actual overhaul time is concentrated in late December, and the operating rate is still high, supporting the raw material market. PTA, though the spot processing section is low, this week Jiangyin Han Bang set up a 2 million 200 thousand ton / year device for a short period of time. It also plays a certain role in supporting the market. But in the late two sets of 3 million 500 thousand tons / year of new production, it is difficult to make the market better.

chart Two The near future PX and PTA Profit comparison chart

Downstream, the operating rate of the cotton mill and grey fabric factory has declined slightly. Some factories began to stop work in late December due to the large inventory of finished products and poor orders. The demand for support was weak, and the resistance of polyester staple fiber market was still larger. Such a strong and weak pattern also makes the polyester staple fiber market in a very awkward position. That is to say, the stock of polyester staple fiber factory is not high at all, the cost support is strong, and the operating rate is above 80%, but the market price is difficult to follow.

chart Three Recent operation rate and stock trend of polyester staple fiber

后期來(lái)看，盡管滌綸短纖企業(yè)目前庫(kù)存不多，現(xiàn)金流虧損也較嚴(yán)重，但12月下旬后紗廠(chǎng)及坯布工廠(chǎng)開(kāi)工率將有明顯下滑，雖然短纖工廠(chǎng)也多提前規(guī)劃?rùn)z修及減產(chǎn)計(jì)劃，但據(jù)往年規(guī)律來(lái)看，紗廠(chǎng)及坯布廠(chǎng)春節(jié)期間開(kāi)工率一本一降到底，但短纖廠(chǎng)開(kāi)工率多將至60%附近，無(wú)論如何都難比擬下游開(kāi)工率的下滑速度；并且12月下旬PTA尚有恒力及中泰新產(chǎn)能投產(chǎn)，MEG供貨偏緊情況也將伴隨需求的轉(zhuǎn)弱而逐步緩解，后市預(yù)期難以樂(lè)觀；為避免春節(jié)期間的累庫(kù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，滌綸短纖工廠(chǎng)只能以積極出貨為主，但伴隨虧損面積的逐步擴(kuò)大，工廠(chǎng)減停產(chǎn)時(shí)間有較大概率提前，價(jià)格方面來(lái)看，短期受成本支撐或暫時(shí)偏強(qiáng)，但12月20日后，市場(chǎng)行情或因需求的轉(zhuǎn)弱以及原料端供應(yīng)的增加而再度轉(zhuǎn)弱。