Recently, influenced by the substantial rise of Zheng cotton, the market has become more bullish and even individual enterprises have been hoarding cotton for "gambling market". The author believes that in the absence of a significant improvement in downstream consumption, it is not appropriate to go too far.

Since the late December, cotton yarn has increased considerably, but orders have not fundamentally improved. According to the feedback from enterprises in Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and Guangzhou, the domestic 40S and above combed and combed yarns have risen 500-1000 yuan / ton recently, and the increase of air spinning, low matching and low count yarn is also 300-500 yuan / ton.

At the same time, China's main import yarn also rose to varying degrees. For example, since January, India, Vietnam and Pakistan yarn also increased significantly, of which Pakistan yarn JC21S rose in the week before 0.10 U.S. dollars / kg, Vietnam's yarn comb C21S rose 0.05-0.06 cents / kg line. The shipping yarn also rose synchronously at the spot and 3/4 months.

However, according to the director of the domestic cotton mill, there has been no significant improvement in the recent orders. Many enterprises only raise their quotations, and the price of real single transaction is much larger. Many real transaction prices are lower than the quoted price by 200-300 yuan / ton.

In order to reduce inventory pressure, many textile factories even promised to take short distance freight. It can be seen that in order to go stock, most of the mills are still willing to sell at low prices.

In January 7th, the head of the Sales Department of a textile factory in Binzhou, Shandong, said that during the new year's day, the grey fabric in the lower reaches rose sharply, which was the driving force behind the rise of the cotton yarn. So, to know, why did the grey cloth rise before the Spring Festival?

The key is that the capacity of printing and dyeing plants has declined sharply. First, the pressure on the environment has increased sharply since the beginning of the year. The government departments urgently need to limit the electricity and production of printing and dyeing enterprises. For example, in December 2019, the capacity of printing and dyeing enterprises in Gaoyang District of Hebei fell below 50%. Second, this year, the printing and dyeing factory has a very early holiday and usually goes on holiday after new year's day. The progress of textile dyeing and printing has slowed down, and many enterprises have been putting them on the printing and dyeing mill for 1-2 months.

Therefore, the rise of yarn is special.

What will happen after the Spring Festival? If the end of the holiday, the printing and dyeing mill can start normal operation, can the grey cloth continue to go up without the obvious improvement in the downstream consumption? A big question mark is needed.

Remind the "gambling market" to catch up with the enterprise. In 2020, we must be cautious, and be careful to drive the boat for ten thousand years.