Domestic epidemic is gradually controlled, and epidemic spread in some parts of the country.

Since the end of 2 in China, the number of newly diagnosed cases has decreased significantly, and 52109 people in the country have been cured and discharged. The epidemic situation in Hubei province and other provinces showed a good controlled trend. However, the epidemic situation began to spread. The total number of confirmed cases in South Korea, Japan, the United States, Italy and Iran was 125-5300.

Downstream businesses: most stores are open. Online retailers Slightly affected

The passenger flow of the Spring Festival is down sharply. Most brands close more than 50% stores, which have a greater impact on spring sales. The growth trend of online sales has also slowed down, or due to the weakening of consumer demand and logistics, but it is better than offline performance. At present, most of the clothing brand stores have resumed operation, and the brand is actively moving online to make up for the losses. It is estimated that Q1 sales will reach 6-7 of the original plan.

Upstream enterprises: shutting down, resulting in shortage of supply, leading to resumption of production and rush orders

The resumption of manufacturing enterprises is generally delayed for one to two weeks, and the actual rate of re production will still take a period of time to reach a higher level after the resumption of work, and the recovery rate of large enterprises is relatively high. Because of China's global textile and apparel industry Exit The proportion is relatively high, and it is the upstream of garment manufacturers in Southeast Asia. Based on the above, we expect that the suppliers who are orderly managed, dispersed globally and have controllable raw materials are the least affected.

Cross border transfer: supplementary medical supplies, but performance contribution is hard to predict.

Transfer of some enterprises Mask Most of the products such as protective clothing and so on are used for donation and government purchase and storage, and are subject to the uncertainty of raw material supply and price for production, uncertainty of actual production capacity and time and output. Related stocks in the epidemic situation during the performance of outstanding, most companies in a month or more time to get the 20%-50% increase.