US Department Of Agriculture'S May Cotton Report Lays A Neutral Bullish Tone For The Market.
On Friday, the US Department of agriculture's May cotton supply and demand report basically met market expectations. As analysts said, the report laid a neutral bullish tone for the future market.
Analysts say the US Department of agriculture officially released the cotton supply and demand forecast for the first time in 2008-09.
ICE cotton will continue to follow the trend of Chicago corn futures. The focus of the current market is corn planting time postponed.
Sharon Johnson, senior cotton analyst at Atlanta's first main temple group, said that the May report contains some positive factors, but there are also some negative factors.
The US Department of agriculture cut its export forecast from 14 million 500 thousand packages reported in April to 14 million 200 thousand bales.
This adjustment is estimated to be less than 14 million 320 thousand packages expected by analysts. Analysts say the annual export of US cotton is lagging behind.
The US final inventory forecast was raised to 9 million 900 thousand bales, higher than the 9 million 700 thousand package reported in April.
The US Department of agriculture's estimate is slightly higher than analysts' expectations of 9 million 870 thousand packages. Analysts say the cut in exports is partly pferred.
The US cotton production estimate has been reduced to 19 million 200 thousand packs, down from 19 million 400 thousand packets reported last month.
Analysts had expected us production to remain at 19 million 400 thousand bales.
Domestic cotton consumption dropped to 4 million 600 thousand packs, down from 4 million 700 thousand packages reported in April.
The supply and demand of world cotton in 2007-08 was basically the same as that reported in April.
However, the US Department of agriculture raised its output from 119 million 730 thousand packages reported last month to 120 million 470 thousand bales.
Global cotton consumption dropped slightly to 124 million 430 thousand bales, lower than the 124 million 940 thousand package reported in April.
2007-08 world end inventory is expected to be 61 million 550 thousand packages, higher than the 59 million 640 thousand package reported last month.
China's output rose to 35 million 800 thousand bales, larger than the 35 million package reported in April.
China's imports fell to 12 million packs, down from 12 million 250 thousand packages reported last month.
India cotton production forecast was raised to 25 million 300 thousand bales, larger than the 25 million package reported last month.
The first forecast for 2008-09 is considered positive.
The US Department of agriculture first estimated the domestic and world cotton production and supply and demand in 2008-09.
Mike Stevens, a SFS futures analyst, said that the forecast for 2008-09 was considered positive, but the relevant data were only preliminary predictions.
In the 2008-09 year, cotton production in the United States was estimated at 14 million 500 thousand bales, slightly below the 1480-1500 package expected by analysts.
Cotton consumption in the United States has been locked in 4 million 300 thousand packages, slightly below the 4 million 500 thousand package expected by analysts.
The US 2008-09 export is estimated at 14 million 500 thousand bales, which is in line with the 1400-1500 package expected by analysts. It is close to the 14 million 560 thousand package estimated by the US Department of agriculture's March Agricultural Outlook Forum.
In 2008-09, domestic final inventory is expected to be 5 million 600 thousand packages, slightly higher than analysts expected 5 million 500 thousand packages.
The global cotton production in 2008-09 was locked in 118 million bales.
The export is locked in 41 million packages and the final inventory is in 55 million 550 thousand packages.
China's 2008-09 production is expected to be 35 million 500 thousand bales, 15 million bags and 55 million 500 thousand packs.
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