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RMB's New High Or Does Not Mean Restarting And Accelerating Appreciation

2008/5/13 15:23:00 17

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RMB's New High Or Not Means Restarting And Accelerating Appreciation.

This can change the trend that the RMB has been inclined to stabilize the dollar unilaterally in the past, better reflect the supply and demand power of the whole market, and get rid of the directional guidance brought by the past one-way appreciation to the hot money in the market.

After 7 days of up and down, yesterday, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar went up 185 basis points, opened at 6.9820, once again refreshed the new high since the reform.

Analysts said that the new high of the RMB exchange rate may be related to the weakening of the US dollar in the international market last Friday. Meanwhile, the data released recently also show that the RMB still has the pressure of appreciation.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday showed that China's CPI rose 8.5% in April, a rebound from 8.3% in March, just below the 8.7% high of 12 in February this year.

In addition, the trade surplus data released by China Customs in April amounted to US $16 billion 680 million, which also expanded again compared with the first three months.

"At present, various factors that promote RMB appreciation still exist."

A foreign exchange trader of foreign banks said that the trend of RMB appreciation will not be reversed.

In the first quarter of this year, the appreciation of the renminbi accelerated significantly, with a cumulative appreciation of 4%, the fastest appreciation since the reform.

However, since the RMB broke the 7 pass against the US dollar in April 10th, the RMB has continued to fluctuate on the bilateral basis of 7, and the rate of appreciation has also slowed down significantly.

A bank foreign exchange analyst believes that yesterday's new high price of the intermediate price does not mean that the RMB will accelerate appreciation. Before the exchange rate has been arranged for a long time near 7, the price of 6.9820 is a normal breakthrough.

On the other hand, from the international market, the US dollar will no longer weaken significantly, and the appreciation rate of the RMB against the US dollar will gradually slow down.

In addition, the renminbi's appreciation rate will also slow down due to fears that the export of domestic trade enterprises may be damaged.

"The renminbi will probably usher in the next long consolidation period."

Another bank analyst said that the current fluctuation rule of RMB is good for increasing exchange rate flexibility.

This can change the trend that the RMB has been inclined to stabilize the dollar unilaterally in the past. It can better reflect the supply and demand power of the whole market and get rid of the directional guidance brought by the past one-way appreciation to the hot money in the market.

He predicted that in May, the appreciation rate of the renminbi would be similar to that of last month, and the monthly appreciation might be between 0.3% and 0.5%.

On the same day, the interbank foreign exchange market as a whole showed a wait-and-see attitude, indicating that the market was cautious about the re creation of RMB.

In the inter-bank inquiry market, the US dollar received 6.9882 yuan against the RMB, slightly lower than the closing price of 6.9918 last Friday, the highest price in the intraday price was 6.9893 yuan, and the lowest price was 6.9828 yuan.

Some traders said that if the yuan broke 6.98 against the US dollar, it would be a signal for further opening of the RMB appreciation channel. Yesterday's new high, it is difficult for the market to determine the future trend.

The overseas market is not expected to rise because of the rising middle price.

At 17:30 Beijing time, in the non deliverable forward foreign exchange (NDF) market, the US dollar reported a 6.5550 yuan NDF contract for a year, slightly higher than the closing price of 6.5520 yuan on the previous day.