First rise and then fall, and now remain at a historical low. Where is the direction of the national cotton price in 2009?

O.A.Cleveland, a professor at Mississippi State University, points out that prices will rebound next year.

The following are the analysis contents:

And much of the smaller economy (if not all) has a sharp drop in consumer income and a decline in basic income returns in developing economies, which continue to plague cotton and other commodity markets.

What is more obvious is that China has suffered huge losses, though the loss is lower than that of the United States and Europe.

It is less than China, but India may be on the verge of collapse at any time.

Textile products lack consumer demand, especially causing great damage to China's textile industry. So far, China is the world's largest textile country and constitutes 45% of the world's textile industry.

No country has been spared, and few goods have been spared.

However, the market of feed grain and oilseeds will be better than that of cotton, just because people eat food for the day.

There are two main problems in the market.

First, consumer income has been decreasing for 12 months.

This problem causes consumers to cut back on expenses and purchase only the most basic needs of life.

Textiles do not belong to basic life goods.

In addition, real consumer income expectations continue to decrease, at least for 12 months.

But now it has improved.

However, the weather is bad in the main grain producing areas of the world, which may lead to a continued shortage of food.

Therefore, the impact of potential food crisis on grain and oilseed markets may be greater than that caused by the actual food crisis.

At the monthly meeting of the agricultural market network discussion held this week, many speakers said cotton prices might rebound.

Subsequently, RaboBank bank continued to say that cotton prices will go up in 2009.

Price is likely to strengthen.

However, export sales are very bad, not only because the price is too high, but also because of the oversupply of textile manufacturing capacity according to the current consumer demand.

Many textile production lines in China and the subcontinent are closed.

But China has shut down more.

People are engaged in commodity trading. Therefore, people's emotions are the main factors of market behavior, and people's emotions are always overreacted.

Therefore, prices always rise too high or fall too low according to people's mood.

In the next 12 months, any price increase as long as it approaches the 56-58 cent interval is bound to encounter resistance.

Coupled with overproduction and sharp decline in demand, the market rally will be suppressed before 2010.

The market price is still lower than the production cost.

The grower's strong suggestion is to delay the sale of cotton.

But such a low proposal may lead to heavy losses on their income.