On March 2nd, "the impact of the rapid decline in the import of processing trade will gradually be reflected in the already declining exports in 3 to 6 months.

　　進口萎縮將加劇出口下滑

　　去年上半年開始，我國進出口速度雙雙下滑。出口方面，3月份出口增速還保持在30%，11月份就已經出現2.2%的負增長，12月份負增長達到2.8%，進入2009年1月份，出口負增長幅度達到17.5%。進口下滑速度更快。去年5月份進口增速還保持40%，到今年1月份已經是45%的負增長。

In addition to the reduction in domestic demand and the decline of international primary commodity prices, long Guoqiang believes that the sharp decline in processing trade imports is an important reason for the sharp decline in imports in China.

　　政策實施要對癥下藥

Long Guoqiang believes that the rapid decline in exports is due to the sharp shrinkage of consumption and investment demand in China's major overseas export markets, resulting in a sharp reduction in orders for domestic export enterprises. Many enterprises can only sign small orders, short-term orders, some enterprises even have no orders, and a large number of export enterprises are facing the risk of bankruptcy and bankruptcy, which will also lead to a decline in investment and consumption, unemployment of migrant workers, social instability and so on.

"When the policy is implemented, the government should prescribe the right remedy.

Long Guoqiang pointed out that many policies currently issued by the central government, such as raising the export tax rebate rate and improving the financing conditions of export enterprises, especially policy financing, have played a vital role in the survival of enterprises.

"On the one hand, China should be a responsible big country, maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate, and on the other hand, improve the policy environment and the external environment of the industrial sectors such as processing trade. We must resolutely resist trade protectionism and take the lead in initiating trade protectionism. When necessary, we must prepare for the precaution and counterattack."

Editor in chief: Xu Qiyun