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Textile And Garment Industry Will Rebound In March.

2009/4/2 0:00:00 24

Industry Supply Analysis: output growth rebounded, investment continued to fall.

In February, the growth rate of yarn, cloth and clothing output all rebounded, especially in the 1-2 month of garment production.

The rebound may come from the end of the 08 quarter of the four quarter, and the data fluctuation factors over the past 1-2 months can not be ruled out.

But under the pressure of export and domestic consumption pressure, the rapid growth of output once larger inventory will lead to a new round of decline in operating rate and the process of stock removal.

  原材料價格分析:內(nèi)外棉價差距拉大,其他原料價格略有回升。滌綸短纖和粘膠短纖價格受油價回升拉動,分別較年初上漲4.17%和11.21%。國內(nèi)棉花價格受政府收儲政策拉升:但國際棉價不斷下行,造成棉花內(nèi)外價差擴大至18%,使紡織企業(yè)的國際競爭力受到影響。

Risk warning.

In the future, the growth rate of domestic retail sales is less than 15% per month.

At present, China and its competitors are still uncertain about the exchange rate trend of the major consumer markets, and the influence of monetary factors on exports cannot be ruled out.

Domestic cotton prices continue to rise and weaken the international competitiveness of the textile industry.

Industry investment strategy.

Maintain the industry's "neutral" rating.

In the context of high plate valuation and entity pressure, valuation security is still the primary criterion of investment. The target value of stable growth expectations will be highlighted, and export companies may have opportunities to rebound and rebate rate increase in the short term.

According to this logic, we upgraded the YOUNGOR (10.28,0.10,0.98%) rating to "buy" this month, and raised the 10.83,0.38,3.64% rating to "overweight".

Lu Tai A (8.28,0.18,2.22%) valuation is the lowest in the industry, and there is a possibility of increasing the value of export rebates and tax rebates to maintain the "overweight" rating.

Editor in chief: Xu Qiyun

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