行業(yè)需求:內(nèi)銷保持高增長(zhǎng),出口四季度面臨壓力。2010年4月行業(yè)零售增長(zhǎng)21%,較Q1略降3個(gè)百分點(diǎn),原因在于天氣多變影響。

At present, the demand for textile and clothing terminals is still strong, and the high growth rate is not expected to decrease.

In April, exports increased by 16% over the same period last year. The growth trend of over 10% will be maintained until the two or three quarter. However, the growth in the four quarter will be affected by negative factors such as the decline in European demand, the appreciation of the local currency and the high price of new cotton.

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Industry supply: expansion is moderate.

In April 2010, the output of yarn, cloth and clothing increased by 18%, 17% and 16%, respectively. The growth rate of fixed assets investment in textile and garment manufacturing industry was 18% and 23%, respectively, and the PMI index of textile and clothing manufacturing industry was 57.1 and 56.7 respectively.

Raw material prices: cotton prices remain high and industry risks intensify.

In 2010 and May, the price of viscose staple fiber and polyester staple fiber dropped to 18850 and 9700 yuan / ton respectively, but the price of cotton continued to rise, and the price of cotton and cotton both reached 4 yuan per ton.

At present, the new cotton listing in 2010/11 may not change the situation of tight supply and demand of cotton and the drop in inventory. Cotton prices will remain high and the cost pressure of later industry will be intensified.

Risk warning.

1, exchange rate fluctuations and trade frictions.

2, the price of raw materials has further increased.