Euro Finance ministers of the 6 member countries held a meeting in Luxemburg on the evening of the evening to discuss the rumors of Greece's withdrawal from the euro area. market A large number of panic selling, the euro fell sharply against the dollar over 200, more than 1.56%, and the European Central Bank plunged more than 500 points in just two days, resulting in the worst weekly performance this month. dollar The index went up 2.3% last week, making it one year. bull market Bulk commodity market Birth change.

　　 A storm triggered by a finance minister

There are many different conjectures about the 6 day euro zone meeting. Germany's Spiegel Weekly reported that after Greece accepted 110 billion euros, the economic crisis did not ease, and the debt burden had grown to an even more serious extent. At present, the country is considering withdrawing from the euro area, reopening its currency and restructuring its debt. The report did not quote sources.

The Greek government and euro zone executives denied the news and made different interpretations of the 6 day finance ministers' meeting.

The Greek Ministry of Finance said in a statement that "the report that Greece is about to withdraw from the euro area is not true. It is a ridiculous and impossible statement, which has damaged the efforts of Greece and the euro area and served for speculation."

Juncker, chairman of the euro group, said the 6 meeting was held in response to the challenge of the IMF and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Participants did not discuss Greece's withdrawal from the euro zone and debt restructuring, but Greece needs further economic adjustment plans, which will be discussed at the finance ministers' meeting from 16 to 17.

Sebet, spokesman for German Chancellor Merkel, confirmed that "the meeting of the finance ministers of the member states of the euro area does not involve the withdrawal of Greece from the euro zone".

According to The Associated Press quoted German officials, the meeting discussed a series of economic issues, including the euro exchange rate, the permanent European financial stability mechanism and the temporary relief fund.

Analysts believe that if Greece goes out of the euro zone, the European integration process will experience the biggest setback, and Greece and other Member States will also have to pay a heavy price.

If Greece abandoning the euro to start its own currency, first of all, it will separate the country's deposits from the eurozone banking system, which may trigger a run, which will have a serious impact on the Greek financial system and the national economy. Inflation, investment stagnation and large-scale unemployment will cause social unrest. Second, according to the German Ministry of finance, the exchange rate of Greek currencies against the euro will depreciate by 50%, the yield of Greek bonds will increase sharply, and the debt burden will reach GDP220% of the country. Greece will then declare bankruptcy. Third, if such a situation occurs, European banks will face huge losses of Greek debt, and the total amount of Greek government bonds purchased by the European Central Bank will be at least 40 billion euros.

Half of the 110 billion euro assistance provided to Greece by the European Union and IMF has arrived and the debt will be transferred to creditor countries.

Other analysts believe that a rumor that Greece may withdraw from the euro area is only a strategy for the state owned enterprise to revise the rescue agreement, but this may trigger a renewed escalation of the European debt crisis and will seriously weigh on the euro in the short term.

　　 The euro suffered heavy losses

Analysts say whether the reports of Greece's withdrawal from the euro area are true or not, its market disruption has occurred. Since last year, the euro zone has launched a rescue mechanism for a long time. The process of making aid decisions is not transparent enough, which makes investors lack trust in the information released by the eurozone authorities. It is easy to accumulate panic and cause a large-scale sell-off in the market.

In addition, the European central bank governor Tyse 5 hinted that June will not raise interest rates again, the euro dollar exchange rate changed this year's rise, plunged 1.93%.

In the US, the number of non farm payrolls increased by 244 thousand in April, the largest increase in nearly a year, further boosting the US dollar.

The euro has risen nearly 9% against the US dollar this year. Julian Carlo, chief European economist at Barclays Capital, believes that the sharp appreciation of the euro has threatened the economic recovery of the euro area, especially for the second-line countries such as Portugal and Ireland, which rely heavily on exports to boost the economy. According to OECD data, in the next two years, the euro's weighted trade exchange rate will rise by 10% every time, and the euro area's economic growth will lose 0.7 percentage points a year.

The foreign exchange strategist of the foreign exchange division of Wells Fargo predicted that it was too early to judge the euro's return to the fall, but the trend of the euro falling through the US $1.45 position is quite obvious. It is impossible to test the position of US $1.50. However, as the market expects the fed to raise interest rates later than the European Central Bank, the euro is expected to rise in the medium term against the US dollar.

The rise of the US dollar led to a bull market in a bull market. Last week, crude oil futures in New York fell 5 consecutive trading days, dropping from $110 to $97.

High metal plate diving. Silver dropped 22% from the high level in 6 trading days, and triggered a chain reaction. Copper, aluminum, lead and zinc all fell sharply.

Trichet said on the 6 th, "the recent decline in commodity prices is good news", helping to reduce the second round of inflation effect probability and consolidate the economic recovery trend.