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May CPI Or Higher Experts Expect Inflation To Peak In June.

2011/5/24 9:51:00 30

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CPI Ministry Of Commerce Market

In the late May, due to the weather and other factors, the industry was in May.

CPI

The forecast indicates that it will remain at a high level, increasing by more than 5% over the same period last year.

According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce, in from May 9th to 15th,

Ministry of Commerce

The price of edible agricultural products monitored slightly increased, and the prices of means of production fell slightly.

Pork prices led the rise, and Guotai Junan researchers believe that the meat price rose to a high level near June, which is similar to that of CPI and PPI, further confirming the trend of high and low inflation before the whole year.

Guotai Junan predicted that CPI rose by 5.3% in May, of which 11.2% were food and 2.8% were non food products.

Another brokerage researcher said that CPI could rise to 5.5% in May and hit a new high.

CITIC Securities Research Report shows that the current market generally believes that inflation pressure is weakening, and inflation will peak in June.

Ma Jun, managing director of Deutsche Bank, also believes that domestic CPI may enter a downward cycle from July.

However, CITIC Securities researcher said that the future inflation is still exceeding expectations, and the expected factors may come mainly from the following aspects.

First of all, the prices of grain, pork and vegetables are affected by the weather.

Data show that grain, pork price chain ratio

Rise

The price of vegetables continued to decline, and the price of edible oil remained unchanged because of the government's price limit.

Because of the 50 years of drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, its negative impact on agricultural production is obvious.

Second, inflation pressure has shifted from food to non food sectors.

In the non food category of CPI, clothing, pportation, communications and services, household equipment and service prices continued to rise, while price increases were also strong in the health care and housing demand of residents with strong demand.

In the coming months, even if the pressure of rising food prices is slowing down, if the pressure of rising non food prices is large, there may be some repetition of CPI's high expectations.

However, the import inflation problem dominated by crude oil has eased in the short term.

By the end of May 19th, the mobile weighted average price change rate of international oil prices for 22 consecutive working days has been less than 4%.

In the short term, the closing of domestic oil price adjustment window will help to ease inflationary pressure.

Insiders said that the early release of excessive liquidity, the number of new loans in March and April were higher, exacerbating inflation.

The volume of money, including foreign exchange and central banks, is increasing. This is the source of inflation.

The government still expresses the need to find a new balance that promotes economic growth and controls inflation at the same time.

However, it is very difficult to find a complete solution. At present, GDP and CPI are the same as the same as the same below. The same goes down with CPI, and the growth of CPI is coming down.

According to the latest data released by HSBC, the PMI preview index of China's manufacturing industry dropped to 51.1 in May, the lowest level since July last year.

Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC China, said there was no need to worry about a hard landing because the current PMI level is in line with 13% of the industrial added value and about 9% of GDP growth.

The focus of policy is still anti inflation.

The current tightening measures are expected to continue in the coming months.