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What is "packaged distribution"?

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Three key issues of packaging and distribution: scale, rhythm and mode

For investors, what is most concerned is the scale of financing, the rhythm of issue and the way of distribution.

First, from

Secondly, from the point of view of issuing rhythm, according to the idea of "packing interval issuing", if 3 small stocks are packaged and issued, they need about 3 times, that is, weekly financing needs of about 9-10 yuan. If 5 small stocks are packaged and issued, they only need to issue about 2 times a month, that is, every 1 billion 500 million weeks' financing needs are equivalent to the financing scale of a large cap stock.

Third, from the way of issuing, if the way of placing the two tier market investors is continued, the 3 week / week package will increase the winning rate to 20%, while the 5 / two-week package will increase the winning rate to about 25% (according to the data in March).

Since March, the average opening profit margin of new shares has been 0.046%. However, if we consider the process of diversification of the chips, we expect that the average profit margin on the first day will be reduced. Considering the fluidity factor, the opening profit margin of the new shares is expected to be lower than that of the same scale.

Two major impacts of packaged distribution: capital orientation and expansion expectations

Since the resumption of the two tier market placement, a large number of purchase funds hoarding in the primary market have not gone to the two level market as they were envisaged, and more often come back to the banks.

If the new share issue is continued to be fully allocated by the two tier market, it will not be able to play a capital role.

Moreover, compared with the early stage double share issuance, the new share issue will have a greater pressure on the stock market funds.

That is to say, the same size of packaged new stock will have larger market impact than the same size large cap stocks.

Secondly, from the perspective of expansion expectation, the issuance of new shares of small cap does not mean that the issuance of super large cap stocks will stop.

At present, the financing desire of some large cap stocks is very urgent.

If large cap shares are used to give way to small cap stocks, it is estimated that the size of the small cap stocks raised by the packaged issue will not be lower than the size of the large stocks waiting to be issued, and may even increase substantially in the overall financing scale.

"Packaged distribution" may give rise to new profit models.

It should be said that the "package issue" will make the current market face a certain pressure of expansion, which will undoubtedly produce a short-term impact in the current capital driven market.

But at the same time, if the small cap stocks concentrate on "packaged issue", if the new investment profit model can be spawned, the impact on the market may also have dramatic effect.

First of all, in recent years, after the listing of large cap stocks, the first step after the suppression of the Yangge board has created a unique "Wan Tong mode", which has become the main profit mode of some investors in the past six months.

Whether the centralized listing of small cap stocks can be continued "Wan Tong mode" deserves attention.

If the expansion pressure of small cap stocks is concentrated on the market, the market will produce a concentrated value bias or discrimination against the "packaged small cap stocks". In the course of its collective decline, some of the good quality small cap stocks will be forced out of the trend of first and then suppress, and once it forms the demonstration effect, it may form a unique plate in this part of the packaged small cap stocks.

From the historical experience, small cap new shares have always been the favorite objects of speculative capital. From this perspective, the stock price drop caused by the "packaged issue" has collected chips at a low level to collect cheap small cap stocks.

Secondly, from the analysis of investors, the "new small cap Market" and "large cap Market" will show two kinds of funds once again.

In fact, since 1. 14, value investors have been heavily targeted - low price big cap stocks have far outperformed the market.

For speculative funds that still occupy a large share of the A share market, the profit estimates in the current round are very limited.

Therefore, with the help of small cap stocks, the speculative capital will also be able to make a comeback with the power of the new small cap after the adjustment of "big cap".

But the premise is that market panic causes undervaluation of small cap stocks, while large investors are reluctant to step in because of liquidity considerations. At this time, these new small cap stocks are likely to usher in a speculative opportunity for salted fish to turn over, and may lead to a new investment mode of "packaged issue panic reduction - value recovery - value overestimation".