* US cotton production is not as good as the US Department of agriculture's --ICAC estimate.

* global production will exceed consumption and drive prices down.

* 2010/11 is the most volatile period of cotton prices in decades.

Washington, October (Reuters) - the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) said on Monday that global cotton production should increase in 2011/12, easing the price trend of the previous year. However, the output of cotton in the United States will be lower than that predicted by the government. 3

ICAC said that a report on cotton failures in Dezhou and a survey on claims for crop insurance in the United States showed that cotton yield per unit in 2011/12 would be lower than that predicted by the US Department of agriculture (USDA).

ICAC said, 2011/12, the United States Cotton yield The estimate will be 3 million 400 thousand tons, less than 200 thousand tons in comparison with USDA in September.

The organization said that global cotton production will reach 26 million 600 thousand tons, pushing the year-end inventory from 9 million tons to 10 million 900 thousand tons.

Last year, tight global cotton inventories and government intervention led to the most volatile trend in cotton prices in decades..ICAC pointed out that cotton is the 53 major commodity that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) tracked in 2010. commodity The most volatile varieties of prices.

ICAC said that the growth of cotton consumption in 2011/12 will be slower than the increase in production, from 24 million 400 thousand tons in 2010/11 to 24 million 700 thousand tons, and the price will stabilize.

Global cotton supply

09/10 10/11 11/12 09/10 10/11 11/12

(million tons) (millions of packages)

Output 22.2 24.9 26.6102114122

Consumption 25.3 24.4 24.7116112114

Exports 7.8 7.7 8.1363537

Final inventory 8.6 9 10.9404150