The people's Bank of China announced in the evening of November 30th that it will be lowered from December 5, 2011. Deposit class The RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 0.5 percentage points.

This is the first time the central bank has cut deposits in three years. rrr 。 Economists believe that the reduction of reserve ratio will help maintain steady and rapid economic growth in the current complex situation.

Intended to release liquidity

"The central bank announced the reduction of the reserve ratio, mainly considering the high level of the current reserve ratio. foreign exchange The reduction of funds and so on has led to the tight liquidity of banks, which limits the ability of banks to lend their credit. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, points out that the reduction of reserve ratio is conducive to easing the pressure of bank liquidity and promoting the reasonable growth of money and credit.

Relevant data show that since 2010, in response to inflationary pressures, China's central bank has raised the deposit reserve rate for the 12 time in a row, but to some extent, it has brought about a general tightening of market liquidity this year. According to the latest data from the central bank, the balance of our broad currency (M2) was 81 trillion and 680 billion yuan at the end of 10, an increase of 12.9% over the same period last year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 27 trillion and 660 billion yuan, an increase of 8.4% over the same period last year, and the year-on-year growth rate of money supply was at a low level in recent years. Ma Jun, chief economist of Deutsche Bank, also believes that the liquidity in the Chinese banking system is less than expected, which is the direct reason for the central bank to lower the reserve ratio and increase liquidity.

After the adjustment, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions was 21%, and the deposit reserve ratio of small and medium financial institutions was 17.5%. After raising 0.5 percentage points, it will release about 400000000000 yuan of liquidity.

Transmit steady growth signals

"In such a critical external demand instability, slowing domestic economic growth and weakening inflation pressure, the central bank lowered the reserve ratio and released a signal of steady growth." Zhuang Jian, senior economist at the China Development Office of the Asian Development Bank, said.

Relevant data show that the risk of China's economic growth rate is increasing. At present, GDP growth has dropped from 9.7% in the first quarter to 9.5% in the two quarter and 9.1% in the three quarter. Meanwhile, HSBC's purchasing managers' index (PMI), released in November, was the lowest in 32 months, reflecting the downward trend of China's economy. In addition, due to the deep spread of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, China's largest export market has entered the most difficult economic period after World War II. Since September, China's exports have been negative growth for 2 consecutive months.

"In the case of China's foreign exchange reduction caused by economic turmoil in Europe and the United States, the decline in inflation level, the pressure of RMB appreciation pressure weakened, and even the risk of private lending capital chain increased, the central bank would like to seize this opportunity to reduce the reserve rate which has always been at a high level and to achieve the effect of releasing liquidity." Fudan University professor Sun Lijian thinks.

At the same time, when the central bank announced the reduction of the reserve ratio, the national development and Reform Commission announced that the sales price will rise by 3 cents per kilowatt hour from December 1st. Residential electricity prices will not rise temporarily.

"The central bank lowered the reserve ratio and the NDRC raised the electricity price. Obviously, this is a group of policy combinations. Under the background of inflation pressure weakening and economic slowdown, we have quietly relaxed the monetary policy to promote the price reform of production factors, and the policy keynote of China's inflation control has quietly shifted to growth. Guan Qingyou, senior researcher of China Sea oil energy economics research institute, said.

Whether monetary policy is turning is still to be seen.

Experts are generally cautious about whether the downward trend means the shift of China's monetary policy.

"The central bank's reduction of the reserve requirement rate can not be understood as a directional change in monetary policy. The decrease in foreign exchange in October led to a net loss of liquidity in the banking system, while the substantial increase in fiscal revenue and the characteristics of its initial receipts and payments also led to a phased decrease in deposits in some banks. Therefore, the central bank lowered the reserve ratio, which is only a hedging policy for liquidity. Guo Tianyong, director of the China banking research center of Central University of Finance and Economics, judged that the policy still needs to be steady, considering that prices are still high, structural adjustment, real estate regulation and other factors.

Zhuang Jian also believes that compared with the previous tight monetary environment, the reduction is only a reflection of further fine-tuning of monetary policy. Whether the policy is fully shifted remains to be seen.

Tao Dong, chief economist of Credit Suisse Asia Pacific, believes that the domestic reserve ratio index is on the high side and the reserve ratio is down technically. In the past 10 years, the normalization of China's monetary environment has just begun.