Marx, the American investment guru, once said, "you can't expect to win when you are doing the same thing with others. Only when your judgment is superior to others, your performance will be higher than the average performance." P said.

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< p > recently, the "a href=" //m.pmae.cn/ "gem" /a "index" started a more than 200 point adjustment after reaching a record high of 1423.96. During the period, the growth enterprise market index reached the top, and the comments on the gem began to be reported in various media.

These empty views are nothing more than the high valuation of the gem, the deep excavation of subjects, the cash flow of large shareholders and so on.

But these are simple conclusions drawn from simple guidelines.

In the forty-second phase of the red weekly retail house, I once wrote that "the gem will go forward in doubt". Now I am still firmly optimistic about the gem, for the following reasons: < /p >

The Third Plenary Session of the first, eighteenth P has just concluded. As a new "three carriages" of economic growth, economic pformation, industrial upgrading and speed up reform will set the tone for the future development of the securities market, and relevant industries and listed companies will benefit from it.

As president Xi Jinping said, where does the power of growth come from? Only from reform, from adjustment, from innovation.

As early as in the 12th Five-Year plan, it has clearly put forward the pformation of the mode of economic development from resource dependence, investment driven to innovation driven development.

Just imagine, in the past two years, there are several winning indices for investment in resources and infrastructure stocks.

On the contrary, the driving force of economic pformation has stimulated the rise of the growth industry represented by the growth enterprise market. Not all the cattle stocks in the Internet, cultural media, TMT, smart wear, big data and so on are the representatives. I believe that with the further deepening of the reform and the further refinement of the policy, more industries and stocks will be excavated.

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< p > Second, although the gem < a href= "//m.pmae.cn/" > index < /a > achieved a new high of 1423, once adjusted nearly 20%, but the index soon recovered 60% of the land lost, still standing on the average.

Judging from the weekly line, the market is still running on the 20 week line, and the monthly line level has not yet hit the May line.

Therefore, the medium term growth trend of GEM has not been destroyed.

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< p > Third, as a high growth and high development potential enterprise, the Nasdaq, which is listed on the market, is still relying on the 60 day moving average, and has been climbing steadily on the 20 day moving average. It has reached a new high of 4045 and is expected to hit the 5132 highest point in history.

The purpose of establishing the growth enterprise market in China is to support the development of independent innovation enterprises and other growth enterprises.

Assuming that the Nasdaq, representing the barometer of the world's high growth enterprises, is still advancing, and our gem index is in place, I can not help asking whether our growth enterprise market is in line with the conditions.

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< p > at present, more than 50% of GEM stocks have increased by more than half, accounting for 51.26%, but this is not a sufficient condition to knock the gem alarm bell.

The varieties of the gem will conform to the historical trend of economic pformation and conform to the strategic development plan of 12th Five-Year. With the further deepening of reform and restructuring, more and more bull stocks will emerge.

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Alexander Elder, American investment guru, thinks that buying and selling stocks is like buying and selling vegetables by small shopkeepers. Pick up new purchases, pick up mature ones, and then throw away the rotten ones. P

This requires investors to have a good insight, use second levels of thinking in the gem of various varieties to choose carefully, hold fast growth, harvest profitable, far away from the stir fried.

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< p > when the seller's organization headed by CICC suddenly turned to start looking at a long time, < a href= "//m.pmae.cn/" > market < /a > did not appear the exuberant joy of the brokers, and did not respond enthusiastically to the rising tide.

The changing market and repeated policy credit make investors more rational and mature nowadays.

From the perspective of policy orientation and capital level, today's market does not have the conditions for the bull market.

Before there is a trend reversal, it is far more realistic to stand half and half on the sidelines than to participate in the trial and error stage.

Therefore, half of the drunken half remain sober. Although they believe that there is still upward space after the short term shocks (maintaining the 2300 point of view of upside), we should be cautious about seeing the non global market of military equipment, aerospace, communications and machinery manufacturing, which is the best choice for smart money at the present stage.

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< p > capital level, from the guidance of the central bank's recent series of monetary policies, the current tightening policy stance is difficult to change. This will decide that the market has not yet established the basis for the overall market value of the large market capitalization.

At the policy level, the leaders of the party and the state have openly interpreted urbanization and rural reform many times, and believe that their influence in the securities market will only be partial.

Based on this, the local response of flexible funds will also be expected.

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< p > look at the plate and technical aspects, with the leading position of Guotai Junan as the main contract capital seat, a substantial increase in the number of seats on a single day has been made. The extent of Sinopec technology withdrawing from the bad news is larger than the required level.

The main factors that influence the synchronization of policy and capital surface decide that the short-term market still remains entangled between 2160~2220 points.

But there is no doubt that with the upward movement of the BBIBOLL line of the large weekly line, there will be a strong continuation of the space force of the leading army's military industry and the warm match of the coal flying dance that keeps the kinetic energy behind the uplink and then the index shock up to nearly 2300 points can still be expected.

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P > < strong > reconstructing small and medium sized shares of small and medium-sized shares < /strong > /p >

"P >" for the current market, the market value of large market market value has been obvious to all.

In this last week, the high-end equipment pioneers, military aerospace, led the communications, petroleum, machinery and equipment manufacturing sector out of a clear direction.

Stocks such as CITIC sea, aerospace communications, Tianli hi tech, Guangzhou Poly energy, China South car and so on are also up to date.

However, due to the fact that such stock institutions and hot money get together, it will take more time to cooperate.

On the contrary, small and medium sized stocks will regain more love from smart money because of relatively simple and limited funds.

In fact, although the market continues to look at the trend of small index, this does not affect the independent market of small index subdivision of military industry, communications, marine equipment, equipment manufacturing, and petroleum, chemical industry, warehousing and logistics.

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< p > take gem as an example. Because the index has been around the trend of film and environmental protection plates such as Huayi Brothers, Hua CE films and blue water sources, so the upwards space of the stocks such as Huayi Brothers is relatively limited, and the index is inevitable.

However, it is not hard to find that since the mid October 22nd, the low profile stock market has been active, and there are few stocks that remain active in the low-key market, such as Weihai Guang Tai, the same big stake, potential Hengxin, Shun Rong, Yun Yi electric, FENDA technology, Meihua umbrella, Hua Pengfei, and CIC in recent weeks.

Due to the high position of the main battlefield, and the continued increase in the number of hot money and QFII, the rally force must not be overlooked.

Therefore, while looking at the variety of large market capitalization, we must not neglect the opportunity of small and medium-sized stocks. In the constant rising of index, we should do away with the risk fog which is deliberately exaggerated by funds and pick up high-quality small stocks in the high-end equipment subdivision.

And from this, a new wave of non small index market segmentation stocks will be expected to get a lot of profit margins.

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< p > < strong > new pattern of preparing pharmaceutical stocks < /strong > < /p >

< p > there is a medical term called "two-way emotional disorder", which is used to describe a kind of mental illness. People who suffer from this disease are sometimes manic and sometimes depressed. A share market is a bipolar disorder in my opinion.

When there is no performance support at all, the growth rate of the gem that has been driven by the dream of the market has increased four or five times in one breath.

If I do not want to go crazy with him, I only have one way to think of it, that is, "return to reason and believe in common sense".

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< p > < strong > the mode of drug maintenance is changing. < /strong > < /p >

This year's pharmaceutical sector is a truly bull market. Quite a number of pharmaceutical stocks have doubled revenue in the first quarter of this year. But with the beautiful appearance of the medical sector, this year's P Doctor-patient Conflict has reached an unprecedented peak.

The source lies in the policy of "taking drugs to support doctors" in the early process of reform and opening up.

No matter what kind of reform plan will be introduced in the future, I firmly believe that the unsustainability of drug maintenance should be changed. We must know that the pharmaceutical sector, which is highly influenced by policies, has been deeply manipulated by the general root of medicine and medicine.

For example, the starting point of drug research and development is beginning to be considered. Behind the links of varieties, bidding, pricing, catalogues and so on are all around the fight for the pen in the hands of doctors.

The whole rule of medicine is decided by medicine, which brings the doctor a large amount of gray income and at the same time pushes the doctor to the forefront of the conflict between doctors and patients.

We will return to the path of rationality, increase government investment, and restore doctors' freedom and dignity.

Then, from the perspective of investment, we need to think seriously. What will happen to the industry if the drug is abolished? What impact will it bring to investment? < /p >

< p > in the investment strategy of 2013, I put forward: "the competition of future pharmaceutical enterprises lies in who can produce drugs which are irreplaceable and conform to principles of economics in clinical practice", because enterprises that can do this means that they can rely on kickbacks without relying on rebates to meet the rigid needs of patients.

When the abolition of drug maintenance, doctors should proceed from the interests of patients, rather than just considering their own rebate angle, the entire pharmaceutical industry's play will be radically changed, and the interest pattern should be redivided.

What I am talking about here is a "clinically irreplaceable and economic principle" drug, which is not necessarily a highly sophisticated new drug. In fact, there are quite a number of classic old drugs in line with this principle from the perspective of China's national conditions.

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< p > < strong > different destinies of two similar companies < /strong > < /p >

< p > I take two drugs in the cardiovascular field as an example to illustrate that one is quick acting Kyushin Pills, and the average daily cost of the patients is only about two yuan. This medicine takes the effect of activating blood circulation, removing blood stasis, activating qi and relieving pain, and borneol in clearing away heat and detoxicating, and inducing resuscitation and awakening. This can increase coronary blood flow and relieve angina pectoris, which is suitable for coronary heart disease and angina pectoris. In fact, this drug is not only used in this field.

Of course, this depends on the promotion of the manufacturer, but if there are only restrictions on coronary heart disease, there will be 200 million people in the potential market.

Another example is Xueshuantong injection, which is widely used in coronary heart disease and angina pectoris. The average daily use cost is much higher than that of quick acting Kyushin Pills. It is more important to note that the marketing method of traditional Chinese medicine injections in the current Chinese medicine market is to a large extent benefited from the rule of drug maintenance. Therefore, it is necessary for every investor to think about the future changes of the two drugs in the long run.

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＜p＞　　最后，我還想談的一點(diǎn)是隨著今年底新版GMP對(duì)無(wú)菌藥物制劑的大限臨近，中國(guó)醫(yī)藥行業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)門檻越來(lái)越高了，過(guò)去的20年很多小企業(yè)靠著當(dāng)家人的膽略和魄力，靠著一個(gè)拳頭產(chǎn)品快速發(fā)展，就像一架飛快的獨(dú)輪車抓住了時(shí)代的機(jī)會(huì)發(fā)展起來(lái)，但是那個(gè)時(shí)代已經(jīng)過(guò)去了，未來(lái)的20年，靠的已經(jīng)不是企業(yè)家個(gè)人的能力和魅力，也不能再靠單產(chǎn)品打天下了，獨(dú)輪車必須發(fā)展成具備高效率的研發(fā)體系、強(qiáng)有力的營(yíng)銷體系和深諳中國(guó)國(guó)情的政府事務(wù)能力的航空母艦，企業(yè)家本身依然重要但更重要的是必須依靠整個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)去競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，未來(lái)企業(yè)之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)更像是平臺(tái)對(duì)平臺(tái)、體系對(duì)體系的對(duì)決，從這一點(diǎn)出發(fā)什么樣的企業(yè)將來(lái)更有價(jià)值大家是不是心里有數(shù)了呢?現(xiàn)在還在依靠著單個(gè)產(chǎn)品和滿足以藥養(yǎng)醫(yī)而未能發(fā)展成平臺(tái)型的企業(yè)不建議壓過(guò)重的倉(cāng)位。

The times will change. Our investment strategy must be forward-looking, even if it is not yet present, because the only way to deal with patients with emotional disorders is to remain rational and believe in common sense.

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