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Spring Festival Holiday Effect Shows PTA Weak Downward Trend Is Obvious

2014/1/20 11:54:00 28

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In January, the price of PTA has been declining rapidly. The price of PTA's domestic spot market has dropped by about 4% compared with the beginning of the month, down 17% from a year ago. At present, the dealer quotes at 7100 to 6900 yuan / ton, close to the lowest price of 6900 yuan / ton in 2010. PTA plant installed capacity of 84.9%, inventory of about 6-10 days. 
 main raw material falls below, < a href= "//m.pmae.cn/news/list.aspx Classid=101112107108" > WTI crude oil < /a > fell to the lowest level of 92 US dollars / barrel from the end of last year's 100 US dollars / barrel, and naphtha fell from 990 US dollars / ton to 950 US dollars / ton, MX and PX both fell. The raw material market is weakening, and the PTA cost center is moving downward, supporting weakness. 
 the downstream market of polyester in China shows a relatively stable trend in the weak market, but the volume of market and the rate of production and sale of enterprises are both downward. Downstream weaving enterprises and market traders will not be more interested in purchasing polyester filament when approaching Spring Festival. Lower polyester operating rate fell to a low level of 72%. Near the Spring Festival holiday, many textile enterprises have already had a holiday. At the same time, facing the end of the year, they are faced with greater financial pressure and demand is obviously insufficient. 
 < < a href= "//m.pmae.cn/news/list.aspx Classid=101112107101 > > PTA < /a > its own fundamentals. In the case of excess capacity, 2014 is also a new year of PTA production, with the expected capacity of more than 10 million tons, and price competition will become more intense. First, in January, the PTA plant operating rate was at an annual high, with an average load of 87%, which is bound to increase the supply of the market. Secondly, look at the position of the 1401 contract, it is 116614 hands at present, about 58 thousand hands, about 290 thousand tons. Plus, from the beginning of the month, there are delivery pairs. A total of about 350 thousand tonnes of PTA will flow out of the delivery warehouse in January, which will also lead to an increase in supply. According to the monthly PTA output from past CCF statistics, the monthly average output in 2013 was about 2 million 200 thousand tons. Therefore, the increase in operating rate and the outflow of warehouse receipts will increase output by 20% more than usual. 
 demand side, this year 1-2 months has stopped or has the intention to stop the maintenance of the "a href=" //m.pmae.cn/news/list.aspx "Classid=101112107105" > polymerization filament < /a > and slicing capacity reached 6 million 680 thousand tons, involving filament production capacity of 6 million 410 thousand tons, polyester prefetching wire (POY) about 3 million 580 thousand tons, polyester draft wire (FDY) about 2 million 830 thousand tons. Although the price of PTA and ethylene glycol (MEG) has dropped sharply in recent years, the polyester industry has turned into a deficit, but the overall parking overhaul device is larger than last year. Loom load has begun to decline near the year. From these two aspects, it is bound to weaken the demand for PTA. 
 from the technical point of view of PTA price, the price of the main contract has fallen below 7000 yuan, a new low, and the price is still in a downward path. 
 Market Outlook: 
 cost support weakened: in 2014, Asia's PX capacity is expected to increase by 5 million 450 thousand tons, and 2 million 870 thousand tons of new capacity will be put into operation in China. PX prices will be under pressure and will be more difficult to support PTA prices in the future. 
 obvious overcapacity. We expect the new capacity of PTA to be put into operation in the first quarter will reach 5 million 900 thousand tons, and the annual plan will exceed 14 million tons. By the end of 2014, domestic PTA capacity is expected to reach more than 40 million tons, while the actual demand may be only 30 million tons. Taking into account some imports, the actual operating rate of PTA will continue to decline, and the huge capacity will generate long-term pressure on the PTA market. 
 short term: /p >
 inventory pressure is increasing: the demand for seasonal holiday is approaching during the Spring Festival holiday, but PTA load is still high and stock pressure will continue to rise. But in recent days, there are many factors in the PTA market. First, the upstream raw materials which are led by crude oil have rebounded moderately, and the market atmosphere has improved. Two, the cash flow of the polyester industry has improved significantly due to the fall in raw material prices. Therefore, some enterprises have made adjustments to the overhaul plan before and after the Spring Festival, and some planned parking devices have a moderate driving plan, which will increase the demand for raw material PTA. 
 overall, the weak market of PTA continues. After the long holiday of the Spring Festival, it will be affected by the increase of downstream operation rate. There may be a slight rebound in the market.