< p > basic data points: the Spring Festival in January led to a marked increase in retail sales in January (fifty retail outlets < a target= "_blank" href= "//m.pmae.cn/" > clothing /a > and jewelry retail sales increased by 18% and 31% respectively), but during the Spring Festival, the retail sales of clothing (0.3% retail sales increased by 0.3%), and jewelry retail was further dragged by the high base (retail sales grew -10.9%); the growth rate of the Spring Festival was raised significantly from January to January.

< /p >

< p > up to February 19th, domestic and foreign gold prices continued to rise by 4.8% and 6.3% respectively at the end of last month. Domestic and foreign cotton prices rose by 0.1% and 2.8% respectively from the end of last month, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices was further reduced by 3.6% to nearly 4200 yuan / ton, and cotton stocks were reduced by 1.2% in USDA2 months.

< /p >

< p > A stock company tracking: due to the early spring festival and other factors, the retail sales of some companies in January are obviously better than normal months. The retail sales in 1 and February are more reasonable.

富安娜:春節(jié)提前對直營零售有偏好的影響,對加盟偏負(fù)面,1月直營零售有雙位數(shù)的增長,而加盟發(fā)貨時間短肯定就有下滑,綜合數(shù)據(jù)持平左右;美邦:1月同店和總銷售預(yù)計有10%以上的增長,特別是直營表現(xiàn)還可以;老鳳祥:1月銷售有10-20%的增長,春節(jié)大概增長10%;報喜鳥:1月主品牌終端零售增長20-30%,而農(nóng)歷12月同比增長7-8%,增速與前期基本相當(dāng);羅萊:綜合看1月可能不如去年,結(jié)合1、2月看數(shù)據(jù)比較合理;朗姿:1月整體經(jīng)營增長不多;七匹狼:1月直營端有30%增長,春節(jié)期間直營收入增長個位數(shù)到兩位數(shù)左右;森馬:森馬1月終端實現(xiàn)30%左右的增長,巴拉實現(xiàn)40%左右的增長;探路者:1月及春節(jié)銷售基本維持前期的增長,春節(jié)期間銷售同比增長22%,店效增長7%。

< /p >

< p > Hong Kong stocks and overseas companies: Prada's revenue in the Greater China region increased by 15% to 830 million euros as of the end of fiscal year January. During the lunar new year, Zhou Dafu and the mainland of mainland China increased by 18% and 12% respectively; XTEP expects 14 years of sales to decline, but 15 years will recover; XTEP's 13Q4 sales are up to 4.2 times.

13Q4Hermes China's revenue, MichaelKors's same store and Fossil revenue increased by 19%, 28% and 12% respectively. In 2013, the income of LVMH fashion and leather goods increased by 5% to nearly 10 billion euros. As of the end of November, the revenue of Levi's's parent company was 4 billion 700 million US dollars. In January, the sales of GAP and H&M increased 1% and 15% respectively, and vip.com shares 75% stake in cosmetics, electric business, and bee net.

< /p >

< p > trend review: in the past 14 years, the a href= "//m.pmae.cn/news/index_f.asp" > industry < /a > ranking is in the middle, but it has outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and the brand has increased. Most of the leading brands such as "the great bird", "search for special" and "Keno" have just dropped slightly, such as Langer, Luo Lai and AOKANG.

In the first half of February (up to 19), the industry ranked slightly ahead of the industry, and it won the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and the brand was popular. It was led by special brands, birds of the world and the United States of America. The manufacturing industry was also popular (Jia Linjie and others led); H-share brand differentiation was obvious (I.T and Zhou Dafu led and Taifeng and Daphne led to decline). The key manufacturing groups also had differentiation but less volatility.

< /p >

< p > Investment Strategy: the early spring festival is beneficial to some companies in January, but it is more reasonable in the 1 and February, and it is expected that the total retail business will be running smoothly.

In February, the market was active, and all kinds of theme varieties were easy to show.

If there is no obvious recovery in retail sales in 1 and February, the industry will be expected to fluctuate in March.

On the whole, the recovery of industry demand is uncertain, but with the active participation of participants, the O2O of mobile terminals in 14 years is expected to be promoted.

In the context of the bottom of the performance and valuation and the downside risk is not large, the trend of online and offline progress will also play a stabilizing role in valuation or a certain stage.

We suggest that the participation of the target can be comprehensively selected according to the following factors: line and down, safety margin and fundamentals.

Along with this main line, there may be some opportunities for the possibility of wave band in the year. The first is the Pathfinder, the United States and fuanna, and the other, such as Keno and Semir, can see a quarterly performance expectation or catalyst and so on.

< /p >

< p > risk hint: economic slowdown affects terminal consumption; external demand is not conducive to export; cost promotion affects < a href= "//m.pmae.cn/news/index_s.asp" > profit < /a >.

< /p >