< p > the median of the survey shows that in March, China's a href= "//m.pmae.cn/news/index_c.asp" > export material < /a > a moderate increase of about 4% over the same period last year, which has been warmer than the sharp fall in February.

But imports increased to 2.4% during the same period, down 10.1% from the previous month.

The balance of trade is expected to return to a surplus, smaller or less than ten billion.

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< p style= "text-align: center" > < img border= "0" align= "center" alt= "" src= "" /uploadimages/201404/05/20140405024953_sj.JPG "/" < > > "

< p > survey feedback figures also show that the view on exports is still the most serious aspect of market divergence. < a href= "//m.pmae.cn/news/index_c.asp" > market forecast < /a > range from 12.3% over the same period to 7.1% over the same period last year.

This divergence is also one of the reasons for the recent divergence of the renminbi to the US dollar spot exchange rate market expectations.

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< p > CITIC Securities Research Report points out that with the recovery of demand in the US, eurozone and Japan, export growth will rebound.

On the import side, with the increase of short-term a href= "//m.pmae.cn/news/index_c.asp" > RMB /a > devaluation pressure, the strengthening of the two-way floating expectations of the medium term exchange rate and the attenuation of the seasonal effect, the growth rate of import will tend to be normal in the future.

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< p > UBS also reported in the report that the strong growth of 10% in the 1-2 month was driven by the replenishment activities and financing related arbitrage activities to a certain extent. However, in the background of the weak domestic demand and the recent depreciation and fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, this trend is not sustainable.

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< p > "in fact, the low demand in recent months has made the inventory of raw materials in PMI index rising relative to new orders, which will bring downward pressure on imports objectively."

UBS estimates that imports will grow by zero in March.

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< p > according to the latest market survey, the RMB exchange rate forecast at the end of 4 is 6.12 yuan ~6.26 yuan, indicating that the market's views on the short-term exchange rate trend are still divided.

Traders believe that the recent direction is not very clear, late trend needs to see economic performance, and March export data may be an important observation point in the near future.

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